<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Strategy - Finance - Operations - Behavior: Curiosities]]></title><description><![CDATA[Curiosities and "conspiracies" - Hot Takes and Quick Commentary of our Current Times]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/s/curiosities</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aNIG!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5bc4491-e00f-4522-8173-1acbc00e1485_1024x1024.png</url><title>Strategy - Finance - Operations - Behavior: Curiosities</title><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/s/curiosities</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:15:55 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://williamfbryant.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[William F Bryant]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[williamfbryant@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[williamfbryant@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[williamfbryant@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[williamfbryant@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[The Sports Complex]]></title><description><![CDATA[Fanatical Behavior and Creating an Extension of Self and a Need to Belong]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/the-sports-complex</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/the-sports-complex</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2026 15:06:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png" width="1021" height="799" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:799,&quot;width&quot;:1021,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:860002,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/i/184768230?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ICF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67853a46-fb12-487c-97da-c9852fb9d4f3_1021x799.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>No. This isn&#8217;t about sports.  This is about the same fanatical complex that arises in people with a need to identify with something that makes them feel something more than they can offer themselves.  All the positives can come with no real effort, sweat, or pain, on their part and they can &#8220;share&#8221; the glory and say &#8220;we&#8221; an awfully lot as if they play an integral part.  Of course, the negatives can bring about depression and anger effecting regular life activity and relationships.   The greater the need for an attachment to fill a void, the greater the fanatical complex.</p><p>Quoting the article, &#8216;Sports Complex: The Science Behind Fanatical Behavior&#8217; by Shirley Wang, </p><p>&#8220;While it may seem understandable that an athlete becomes attached to teammates and being part of a team, it is clear that sports spectators &#8212; those regulars sitting in the stands &#8212; can also become so passionate about their team that it becomes part of their identity and affects their well-being.&#8221;</p><p>But while this is evident with sports, it tends to be overlooked in other areas.  One such fanatical attachment is to brands &#8230; think Apple users.  If you know an adherent Apple user, all their products are Apple, but it goes further.  You could probably guess the model car they drive, their movie and show watch list, and whether or not they took the vax and cried out for imprisoning persons during the &#8216;pandemic&#8217;.  </p><p>I will return to the single greatest behavioral experiment ever carried out in a moment, but lets return to the fanatical sports complex and the extension of self.</p><p>A 1990&#8217;s study, published in the <em>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</em>, asked &#8216;highly-aligned&#8217; sports fans to watch their college basketball team either win or lose a game.  Questions were then posed to the fans as to how well the team would perform in the future; but then an added twist, the fans were asked to make &#8220;unrelated estimates of their own performance on motor, mental, and social-skills tasks&#8221;.  What they found was honestly ridiculous, but answers why the current political propaganda push is to cite all the &#8220;wins&#8221; accomplished.  They found that the fans whose teams had won not only had greatly higher estimates of the teams&#8217; success, but of their own success and abilities.  </p><p>Expanding on the study, fans were asked to evaluate their team&#8217;s fans and the opposing team&#8217;s fans.  What they found was that, of course, they found their team&#8217;s fans to have been much better sportsman than the opposing fans, but the quote by those conducting the study says everything&#8230; </p><p>&#8220;It almost seems to me that they (the fans) were using the denigration of other fans as a way to enhance self-esteem. Not only is my team better, but man, your fans stink, too.'&#8221;</p><p>The complex fills the voids in individuals as they seek to belong to something that can offer them feelings of success, dominance, and even moral superiority. This fanatical complex is most easily studied using the sports environment, one, because it is prevalent in our culture, and, two, people are very open about their fandom.  People may even go so far as to admit that they have noticed in themselves this fandom and changed behaviors that can have negative side effects when engaging others.  But, again, because the sports phenomenon is such an integral part of our culture others rarely say anything about it.  This fanatical behavior isn&#8217;t about sports, however, it is about the individual.</p><p>As with the Apple reference earlier, this fanatical behavior is found in any environment where there are two sides that are battling for a &#8220;win".  I bring this topic up to point out how the people have been manipulated, keying on this need to belong, to push ideologies in the political arena.  Where politics used to be largely ignored, unless an event effected a large swath of the population, the past two decades has turned it into an &#8216;us&#8217; versus &#8216;them&#8217; team perspective and with it, amplified the fanatical behavior in the sports complex.  </p><p>This fanatical behavior is so ridiculous that there is now no questioning of either side of the political aisle.  If you pose questions or hold accountability then you are attacked for being on the other &#8220;side&#8221;.  There is no concept that someone could possibly be impartial.  The fanaticism has been continually queued through propaganda to create a mindset in the groups that they are in a sports arena and that if the fan cheering for everything your team is doing, then they must be in favor of the other team winning.  All debate is shut down and has quite literally turned into the football space in which the head coach makes all the calls and the fans just have to sit there and watch it with exuberant support. What&#8217;s perhaps even worse is that the same distractions that are used to keep the crowd entertained during time-outs and halftime are also used to keep the populace distracted or emotionally queued up for the half to begin.  </p><p>Echo chambers and X feeds surround us, playing the memes and vids (how many are AI now?) to keep your side believing you are winning and the other side is losing. Paid propagandists that declare themselves &#8220;alternative&#8221; media are no better than sports media dedicated to one team or the other, cheering every move like its the thing that will push the team to a winning season.  And this cycle feeds on itself as it links into the need to belong and the self-esteem building &#8230; who doesn&#8217;t want to feed their self-esteem?  </p><p>Interestingly during the pandemic, this very frothing fanaticism, is actually what stopped a great many people from getting the vax and participating in the fraud.  It is easy to spot in others when you are dispassionate, evaluating a subject.  But when you are the one frothing and being fed the groupthink in your echo chambers by manipulated social media algorithms, coincidently is boosting your feelings of superiority and self-esteem, it is like a drug that you cant kick.  The parallels of the sports studies and our current political state and how it is enabling control over minds is the pandemic push &#8230; in a different arena.  How many will notice?  </p><p></p><p> </p><p> </p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Delusion]]></title><description><![CDATA[If our current state of affairs could be stated in one word it would be...]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/delusion</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/delusion</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 18:00:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ac5d8fa9-f369-476b-95df-8aa183f7db14_640x640.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg" width="248" height="210" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:210,&quot;width&quot;:248,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:8695,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/i/183135761?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fIXO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f34765-98a9-4e8c-afd3-343ceca76d54_248x210.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Now I pondered on this word.  I was going to choose &#8216;grift&#8217;.  But I believe that grift is a byproduct of delusion and delusion covers so many other areas that we see in society.  Perhaps these delusions were always present and communication technologies have simply enabled us to see examples of it everywhere.  Perhaps it was the focused push of Marxist-Communist, red-revolution, type propaganda of youth over age pushed onto the Millennial and then amplified in Gen Z from the old feminists remaining from the Boomers in positions of educational authority.  Perhaps the combination just cause it to overflow and run wild, after all China&#8217;s red revolution didn&#8217;t have the communication technologies, but did seek to boost the egos of the children as powerful and intelligent and leaders of the new world that should overtake the old generations and their antiquated belief systems.</p><p></p><p>Propaganda is a powerful tool.  This is especially true to those that need to believe the propaganda because it gives them some sense of purpose, higher moral standing, self-importance, or status that can mask inadequacies, insecurity, and lower cognitive abilities.  This, of course, has been proven.  We have already seen a point-blank, in-your-face propaganda screamed out as a pandemic that never was.  Masses took to the propaganda for all the reasons above without ever stopping to ponder the most basic of questions, which is how I knew it was B.S. from the beginning &#8230;</p><p><em>We all saw the images coming out of China. We all understood the what-ifs that went along with what we saw.  And we all know how chicken-shit and self-interested those in Congress are.  We also know that they would have considerably more information about anything ongoing of this level of seriousness &#8230; an yet, not a one panicked and flew off to some deserted island, not one rose a stink of manic when Trump took 8 - 10 weeks to close the incoming flights &#8230; not one worried about being around others when we were shown images out of China that would scare the shit out of any rational person if it was real and they had additional information &#8230; unless &#8230; it was bullshit. And so, from the moment that there was a looooong hesitation to close the borders by a guy that is the biggest megalomaniac, narcissist of self-importance, I knew it was lies.</em></p><p>&#8230;of course, one has to rely upon cognitive ability to stop and question, to reason out a situation and information.  As we saw, only about 15% of the populace was able to do so, and only about 5% of women and effeminated males.  If you wander about this, studies have already shown that higher testosterone ratios relative to estrogen (as men and women have both) results in more individualism, rationality, and self-reliance.  Less results in what you would expect, a reliance on group-think for sources of strength and power.  We saw this attempt to use group-think by the effeminate to force the vax or masks on people with no consideration of any rational proposals as to why this was unnecessary.  They nearly won.  </p><p>Ironically, I believe it was the Marxist propaganda that was fed into the younger generation that was the downfall.  Since the younger generation has been fed how amazing and powerful they are and how they must change the world, they didn&#8217;t take to any authority that represented the very source of what they had been taught to change.  Ego and arrogance fed into the minds of the young, eventually spilling into the self-importance of others, stopped the tide and totalitarian charge &#8230; crazy.   </p><p>Propaganda reinforces itself as groups because, as pointed out, these groups tend to be weak and insecure and needing something that justifies themselves as being superior in other areas.  This happens, more often than not, in women as Orwell was quick to point out &#8230; (this has happened before in history, many times).  Men have always been ones to pick a side and fight, often for similar reasons... primarily power and control over others, but they don&#8217;t have to believe in the propaganda to pick a side.</p><p> </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg" width="590" height="279" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:279,&quot;width&quot;:590,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:41370,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/i/183135761?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4oOZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76bb8b9e-9c18-4c9d-8ffd-f7c2327bf189_590x279.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>As in his quote above from his book &#8216;1984&#8217;, Orwell, well knew how propaganda takes hold.  And while he mentions women, I would again say an effeminated society filled with the self-interest, self-importance, and moral superiority associated with it.  I always have to state effeminated because I have known several women, unique, of the 5% of their gender, that prove ability on a daily basis and stand strong in their own right&#8230; the other 95% not so much.  Of course, the same can be said for the &#8216;men&#8217; these days as they as they seek the same self-importance and exude the same arrogance that masks the inadequacies and feeds the delusions, the results of propaganda for years.</p><p>Before I get into the delusions of the society around us I would like to just mention an example of the propaganda &#8230; most effectively sluiced into the populace through media &#8230; that has been working for years by using that of Mary Poppins. Yes, the 1960s Mary Poppins.</p><p>The old Julie Andrews version of Disney&#8217;s Mary Poppins has a very interesting sub-storyline.  Certainly, we all know of the children and their need of a nanny that magically brings a family together, but few pay closer attention to the characters aside from Mary Poppins.  Does anyone notice that the wife is the typical ivory tower dwelling leftist, fighting against her husband and the &#8216;patriarchy&#8217;, going on her crusades to protest because she won&#8217;t raise her children and needs to feed her self-importance? She has no need to work. Her husband makes plenty of money as the &#8216;evil&#8217; banker so that they have live in staff that tend to the home.  The children are little shits that continually misbehave, perhaps because they have no motherly figure, she is too busy off trying to find moral superiority.  And certainly you can mention she is fighting for a woman&#8217;s &#8220;right&#8221; to vote.  Only one has to wonder what exactly she needs to vote for that can&#8217;t be cast on behalf of the family by the husband.  </p><p>&#8230;One also has to wonder where any society has ever seen benefit by giving way to the passage of the 19th amendment as we are now seeing, evidenced by NYC mayoral vote&#8230;.  </p><p>Anyway, the entire film is Marxist, feminist propaganda set to disrupt the family setting of strength in a society, which was part of the push for Suffrage as it would pit man against woman and split the family.  The other part was related to Orwell&#8217;s observation that the effeminate would take to propaganda to serve all their requirements of delusions of self-importance and moral superiority by fighting against the family, the very essence of what a woman is, the family.  Mary Poppins isnt the only poison that oozed into society through seemingly harmless media, but I think it is a great example since most never look deeper at this story.      </p><p>So this brings me to the world today that this propaganda has wrought.  Our world today is filled with nothing but self-importance, arrogance, and striving for an imaginary superiority.  I have been picking on the feminine and will get to the effeminate males &#8230; but first</p><p>The idea that there is a patriarchy when colleges are filled with women, when corporations are filled with women, when women are promoted because they are women, government positions are filled with women &#8230; and this wouldn&#8217;t be so bad if they all didn&#8217;t seem to work to destroy the world around them because they still believe they are destroying a patriarchy that doesnt exist.  They act against their own safety because they can&#8217;t see beyond the propaganda that gives them their moral-superiority.  A perfect example of this is the current world issue of illegal invaders in western countries that were pushed and perpetuated by women who are now dealing with the brunt of the decision. But rather than dive into this serious topic of illegal invaders and replacement, I would look at the decline of fertility and children directly associated with the dating world since its a bit lighter, although still very sad.</p><p>If you have ever spent any time on a dating site you will acknowledge that there is a glut of over 35 women looking for their &#8220;long term partner&#8221;.  Now these women are mostly homely, average looking, not exactly overweight but definitely not in-shape, and all have several filters over their photos to depict the &#8220;real&#8221; individual.  Some mention they want kids, some that they have them and dont want more.  All seem to think that they are world travelers and that they all &#8216;deserve&#8217; to be treated like queens or princesses &#8230; what they mean is they want someone to worship them as the superior being or provide all the money for their needs &#8230; and they all seem to lay down these lists that men have to meet about height, body type, income, and so on.  </p><p>If this isn&#8217;t proof of the delusional result of years of propaganda &#8230; I don&#8217;t know what is.  And unfortunately it is because misery loves company&#8230;</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg" width="1000" height="377" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:377,&quot;width&quot;:1000,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:45950,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/i/183135761?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb015717e-006b-4e88-95d2-bf0ba8f3aea0_1200x630.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZpsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58648945-91f3-40b4-a87e-edd2e470157f_1000x377.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Somewhere in the feminists&#8217; goal to destroy family and perpetuate misery in other women (no one hates women as much as other women as Mencken noted) they have been able to perpetuate the lie that women can easily have children after 35 years of age.  Hell, I have seen women 45 that now seem to think they can start a family.  People have been trying to draw correlations between autism and vaccines, but since correlation is not causation, I would ask how many have looked at the rising age of women trying to have children and rates of autism.  No matter, the fact is that unless you have saved some eggs, after 35 the quality of eggs and quantity of eggs (note both aspects) drops off a cliff.  Past 40 &#8230; good luck.  This is only important if you have a mate.</p><p>Since women have spent their best child bearing years trying to &#8216;fight the patriarchy&#8217; by getting jobs, their greatest dating pools through college are passed up.  They move into their mid to late 20&#8217;s either dating at the office or going to clubs which immediately biases the pool to guys that would go to those places.  Before you know it, the women are rolling into their 30&#8217;s believing that guys give a shit about the job or title a woman has and that this offers her some sort of advantage over the attractive waitress at a restaurant.  No.. it doesnt. </p><p>The delusion continues as women see themselves only through their caked on makeup or phone filtered photos and believe that in the world of women, their 3 out of 10 rating is a 10 out of 10 and they will only date hot guys who are rich and famous, but mostly rich.  Stories have come out about women who &#8216;date down&#8217;, but in truth are dating at their level. And given that the women have been hand fed corporate positions over males simply because they are women, and the men work the blue collar work and most dangerous jobs (because patriarchy you know) the women either make more money, or the guys dont have a cool enough job to compete with the delusional ego of the woman.  </p><p>Given the heavily medicated populace of women &#8230; I would say that the next 5 - 10 years is going to be a terrible time for those that bought into the lies and propaganda that fed egos against natural self-interest.</p><p><em>Now this I dont much care about the retorts to this (and there would be many if this was ever read) because the fact is the dating sites are filled with exactly these individuals &#8230; reality is a strong factor, but not to the delusional that must hold on to the delusion as it defines self-importance, moral-superiority, and all the rest.</em></p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 848w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NzM0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe84df22e-d9ac-4812-92be-b6acde0da926_465x306.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>But this isnt only women.  The delusion in the males is just as bad and perhaps is a direct result of the effeminizing of society and the destruction of the male.  It is blatantly obvious that most of these males have never been tested and are the direct result of the participation trophies that have been a part of the &#8220;educational&#8221; system for the past 30 years. Males too suffer delusions from their funhouse filters on their mobile devices.  It is most obvious in gyms and training facilities as very average individuals celebrate every mediocrity with a pic and a video and walk about like a rooster looking for a perch to crow.  </p><p>I suppose it is the last vestige of the male to attempt to celebrate victories as most any other avenue has been stripped away, but as the saying goes, it is obvious none of these individuals have been punched in the mouth or competed on any level for anything.  Unbeknownst to many it seems, this was the reason for competition, to establish a gauge for oneself and to maintain the fine line of humility and confidence.  Instead that was striped away by the effeminizing of society in favor of  catering to &#8216;feelings&#8217; and confidence was replaced by delusions of greatness and celebrated mediocrity.</p><p>As reality sets in, it is quickly discovered the inadequacies that could have been addressed had they only been discovered early on.  Now there is little but husks of arrogance masking insecurities that has nearly destroyed the male.  The pacification of the male nearly complete.</p><p>If this wasnt enough, simply expand your observations.  We now have 20 year old life coaches, Manifestation gurus that coach you to dream your life into existence without any actual effort, expert gym trainers that are in any shape except athletic shape, expert finance traders and so on and so on. Perhaps the even greater mystery as to how all this takes shape, is that people actually contribute money for people&#8217;s opinions, regardless of whether they actually know or provide anything substantial.</p><p>It is quite sad the delusion we live in.  And it will be worse as the delusion corrects&#8230; it always does.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[X, Social Media and Bot Accounts]]></title><description><![CDATA[Could 'Verified' accounts be AI accounts used by the X Corp to Interact with Users]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/x-social-media-and-bot-accounts</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/x-social-media-and-bot-accounts</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2025 14:18:47 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f1d0f13e-0adc-42b4-9a3a-9ca49ac3d43f_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A few years ago, when the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk was the big news story, there was the unanswered question as to how many of the accounts on Twitter were fake accounts.  I am sure there are still some articles that haven&#8217;t been erased from the internet that cover this topic, but the actual attempt at defining a number is of no consequence to this short article.  The reason it is of no consequence is because I am simply going to tell of my experience of new followers over the past couple of weeks and the peculiarities that arose from DMs with these followers.</p><p>Today, people are often trying to figure out if papers are written by AI or films and pictures are composed by AI.  I actually find this fairly easy to decipher.  In film and pictures AI has no ability to understand details at a granular level.  This is one of the reasons that early images of people would have six fingers, but even now images have no pores in the skin, no imperfections as everything looks like it is viewed through a subtle diffusion filter.  The written works are similarly off.  </p><p>People, in general, write as they would speak.  This is often a peeve for English teachers, but it is evident in articles written by Millennials, and certainly Gen Z&#8217;s when their speech patterns are put to the written word and space holders of speech make an appearance in sentences such as the &#8216;Valley Girl&#8217;, &#8216;like&#8217;.  However, an individual cannot speak with more eloquence nor with a richer vocabulary then they readily possess.   </p><p>If these patterns show up in the papers and articles of human authors, then I am sure you can only imagine, or have already experienced, how well the English language is slaughtered when &#8216;conversations&#8217; are had over text or DMs.  The question is then, would an AI use these patterns of conversation?  It is unlikely, at least for now.  So when I get an alert that I have a new follower and the conversation flows into the topic of books and how rich a library of knowledge I have in my collection and how much information I have gleaned from the collection of works, it is almost certainly not written by another human.  In fact, most of the conversations have flowed much the same as a conversation might with ChatGPT.</p><p><em>I should mention that it is entirely possible that a collection of foreigners with a wall of cellphones may also assist the AI bots in having conversations with users to give the impression of X having a number of real subscribers and users &#8230; or scammers.  But there were never actual questions of any personal detail, nearly everything was a superficial topic that would have made a good topic for a book report rather than for a scam.</em>  </p><p>My point being, people communicate in predictable patterns and these patterns were were far too structured to have been made by a person familiar with the way 20s and 30s somethings communicate with others.  This is a telltale sign that these accounts were bots, AI or bot farm accounts.  I am certain others that use X have experienced this and while some are easy to spot, namely being a very new account, some are not.</p><p>In two weeks times I had fourteen new followers, only one of which I believe to be a real human.  All of these accounts not only had several hundred followers, if not thousands and all of these accounts followed several hundred to a couple thousand accounts.  The strangest points, however, were that some of the accounts were from  the early 2010s, 2012 and 2014, and that they were VERIFIED accounts.  One of the accounts I can say for certain was not a human.  The other I can say was a bot farm account with one user running many many accounts.</p><p>The one account that was a bot farm account may be expected, but gives rise, once again, to the question of the number of actual users of the platform.  <strong>The second account potentially suggests that perhaps the corporate entity itself tags AI accounts as &#8216;verified&#8217; and uses them to interact with users. </strong>This second account is disturbing if true and one that I believe people should question, at the very least due to the fact real people are paying to be &#8216;verified&#8217; and this representation may be B.S. at best.  This second account, if true, again calls to question the number of actual users, but further the integrity of the system of the company.  I found it strange and thought it at least worth the mention.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Human Behavior Never Lies]]></title><description><![CDATA[The events in Butler, PA have certainly caused a stirring within media and the population as a whole.]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/human-behavior-never-lies</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/human-behavior-never-lies</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 20 Jul 2024 21:34:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25fdc3cc-91cd-4b3f-ba6e-9001b9738459_480x528.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The events in Butler, PA have certainly caused a stirring within media and the population as a whole.  &#8220;Analysis&#8221; and commentary from every angle and by every armchair commenter has inundated the internet and will probably continue to do so for many months and perhaps even years.  I comment on certain aspects now, not because of the attempt, but because of what transpired in the VP announcement and where this will take the country going forward.</p><p>I want to begin by drawing attention to videos of shootings that occur in Chicago, New York or any number of cities that experience gang violence or any shootings that occur around crowds of people due to the examples, and precedence, of human behavior that will be seen in such circumstances.  You have probably seen videos displaying shootings, either traffic cams or private surveillance and the occasional filming by a cell phone, but there are two common behaviors seen in every instance...</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>The first, is that upon the firing of the shots, nearly everyone looks to the source of the shots.</p><p>The second, is that upon recognition people get down and haul ass for cover to the point that people will trample over other people to get away.</p><p>&#8212;</p><p>Now I would draw your attention to the stands and people sitting behind Trump on those Pennsylvania grounds.  I am certain you can find a video of it.  Forget about the shots and the so-called acoustic &#8220;analysis&#8221; or sloped roof or any of that for a moment.  Watch the coverage of the people in the stands with the sound turned off.  What you will see is a curious event.  Trump goes down behind the podium, but what do the people in the stands do&#8230; they stand up and try to see why Trump got down behind the podium.  Then as the SS come to the podium many sit back down and grab their cameras.</p><p>Paint a picture &#8230; you just heard gunfire, and yet saw no one in the stands look in the direction of the sounds.  Shots have whizzed by, hitting two in the stands, both keeled over and blood draining from wounds&#8230; yet no on hauls ass out of those stands.  You yell fire in a theater and you may very well be trampled.  You just had several shots fired in your direction, people hit and no one hops off the backside of the stands to get away? No one is trampled by people trying to get out of the way of the shots?  This does not even remotely gel with scenes of shootings at malls or other highly populated areas where people are screaming out and running for their lives.  No&#8230; here in the stands we see everyone grabbing for their cameras and phones to take pictures and the journos in the front row of the crowds actually STAND UP TALL to get their cameras high enough to get a photo.  Curious.</p><p>I can only say that if you watch it with the sound off, it is curious that you would never draw the conclusion that any shots were fired.  It just doesn&#8217;t gel with human behavior and this is in fact the ONLY question that you should be wondering about because the rest are just glossing over the fact that human behavior was not what is seen in those kinds of situations&#8230; ever.</p><p>Now, shortly thereafter, a Military Industrial Complex (MIC) and Intelligence Community (IC) darling, JD Vance, is chosen for VP.  This is not good.  Most won&#8217;t say anything however because they are too in awe of the scenes blasted on every screen for the days leading up to the RNC convention, the scenes in Bulter.  And, certainly, there are more questions than answers to what happened there, but the situation that resulted is what concerns me because the only thing I care about politically is freedom and could care less about the lie that is the two party system of parasites.</p><p>I want to make this short so I will walk as direct a line to the outcome as possible.  One type has surrounded Trump since his first term, swamp creatures, also known as the deep state.  All of his choices for various power positions have been those that can only be described as refilling the swamp.  And now, all over again, we have these names coming out from Trump &#8230; but now, rather than fighting the IC, the selection of Vance would seem to indicate we are going to see IC desires pushed and, most likely, MIC desires pushed (Iran).  </p><p>If you where unaware, it was the IC that brought us the Patriot Act, perhaps the biggest violation of Constitutional rights in the history of our country.  Welcome in the TSA, Homeland Security and all the other government expansion necessary to set up a technocracy to track you cattle and target you as a dissident if you dont agree with the government in power.  But, during this period, large scale data analysis was not as advanced as today.  Today, I believe that the AI analytical tools and the vast data collection that is conducted by these agencies is ready to initiate the &#8216;papers please&#8217; check points, tracking of your spending and purchases and, in-short, initiate a obfuscated social-credit system like that in China.  How will this come?</p><p>In order to have gotten the Patriot Act through congress a massive event was needed to get the emotional support from the majority people, non-partisan.  9/11.  Without any consideration of the consequences, or questioning how a thousand page document could be put together in three days, the congress jammed it through and all the deep state empowerment that came with it.  In order to put through the final step that was never completed due to technological shortcomings, we need another event &#8230; OR &#8230; someone that everyone believes would never do them wrong &#8230; someone who understands the people &#8230; someone who has also been attacked by the system.  That someone could get legislation through that would appeal to the JD Vance backers and the parasitic congress that would make money on the stock trades once all the government contracts were passed on.  I will let you guess that someone.</p><p>But what or how is this system and what will be passed you might wonder?</p><p>What signs did you see ALL OVER the RNC convention &#8230; MASS DEPORTATIONS NOW.  This is the set up.  The government caused the problem so that the people would demand exactly this and the trusted Trump has promised the &#8216;solution&#8217;.  Combine this problem with illegals and add it to that of our voting system (another prominent issue) and what do you have as a common solution &#8230; DIGITAL IDs.</p><p>Trump has already said he would give law enforcement more power, and while this deportation program is supposed to be under the disguise of traffic stops, with the government history, you can bet that this is going to evolve to random stops with the eventual evolution to papers please checkpoints.  You think not&#8230; no one would have thought the TSA would be groping them back in the 1980s and 1990s.  With the fact that JD represents the IC and those that demand to hoover up all your data, they now just need to tag you.  </p><p>Given the issues with illegals and voting, I would foresee an issue in our elections that will cause the people to get upset.  This will probably be vote tampering, again, and whether Trump is elected right away or after a resolution to the issue, he will be in office to immediately pass through this DIGITAL ID system that will coordinate with the mass deportation program.  And once the ID is in place&#8230; guess who else is around Trump&#8230; the CBDC&#8217;ers.  </p><p>Folks, after the event in Butler, Trump has risen to messianic status in the minds of many of these people.  Hell, people who have never known anything but voting democrat will vote for him.  These are the kinds of events and fervor that cause emotionally fueled reactions to issues without any thought to consequences.  These situations have occurred throughout history and the outcomes have never been good&#8230; war, enslavement, communist slaughterings of millions of people &#8230; </p><p>I am not a religious person, but I do remember one this &#8230; when the devil would come back it was said he would be adored by all &#8230; </p><p>I am not insinuating the devil &#8230; but lets just replace devil with the bringer of evil and enslavement.</p><p>I know this is a far cry from what I normally write, but certain steps in history and the behavioral patterns that lead to them are found to rhyme in future generations.</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Financial Alchemy and Societal Behavior]]></title><description><![CDATA[Where we find ourselves now as it feels like the dam is going to give]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/financial-alchemy-and-societal-behavior</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/financial-alchemy-and-societal-behavior</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 17 Dec 2023 19:52:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c5140409-acd5-4f7f-aa6f-6db43e59a07b_1817x1117.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The holiday season &#8230; an ideal crucible for testing reactions.</p><p>We could simply refer to this as the season of greed, lies and jerks.  How far we have come in just a few decades &#8230; at least the years that I can use as a direct reference. <strong>I would suggest that the power to influence finance can not only influence control over a country, but it can also set the stage for the behavioral manipulation of the masses.</strong> </p><p>I had begun writing this prior to Black Friday and figured I would observe various market trackers, reports, and most importantly the people over the days prior to and after the &#8216;big&#8217; shopping day up until Christmas.  Early on, I had already seen parking lot fights and heard F*bombs flying on the Wed before Thanksgiving so my observations were already off to a good start.  Mind you, this wasn&#8217;t a pre-Black Friday rushed shopping experience I witnessed &#8230; and while the shopping season is going to be interesting on its own &#8230; this was simply the Wednesday morning before Black Friday.  </p><p>The scene was comprised of people that were driving around a one-way square that happened to be the central location of a double-decker parking structure for a shopping area that was neither busy, nor packed with cars.  This Wednesday was, however, a day which seemingly everyone that could take it off, did so and that was noticeable in the slight increase in traffic on the streets, but it was definitely not crowded around the shopping area.  As it was, there didn&#8217;t seem to be a reason for what felt like a tension in the air &#8230; the people walked like they were under stress, drove like they were under stress, swore at each other like they were under stress.  Why is it that supposedly joyous times of year are anything but joyous &#8230; if you were to be honest, how many moments of genuine joy did you have during the Thanksgiving week?  Was there actual elation?   </p><p>Now, perhaps it is the one-way that people can&#8217;t handle, we don&#8217;t see them often in the states, that causes some stress.  This may explain the &#8216;need&#8217; for drivers to attempt to cut through the parking structure at top speed to get across the square without having to acquiesce to the one-way flow of traffic.  Perhaps it was the drive to the center and people were still suffering highway PTSD given the way people drive these days.  It could&#8217;ve been, but I do not believe these were causes of the feeling of tension and stress in the air.  Nothing influences behavior like finances.  </p><p>The big holiday approaches and, of course, this means the spending of money.  Its always been sad that in a country of &#8216;Christians&#8217; the mere mention of spending money and holiday in the same sentence automatically conjures up Christmas.  Now I won&#8217;t get into the various blending and uses of holidays to force conversion to Catholicism over a couple thousand years, but I will say that a day that was designated as a pivotal moment in a religion that so many people claim, being more immediately recognized via money and shopping &#8230; well that says a lot.  About people, about society, about brainwashing, about convictions, about money.</p><p>Money, the actual religion.  Money, the basis for which people judge others.  Money, the basis for controlling others.  Money, that this time of year, people don&#8217;t have and put on credit cards that they are unable to pay down until April of the next year.  Money on travel, food, gifts &#8230; time away from work which may or may not be covered by PTO and costs you money as an opportunity cost, represented by more money.  And if they didn&#8217;t spend the money &#8230; ?  What if it was time they gave instead of gifts? </p><p>Our society&#8217;s bent for money has been called consumerism or materialism, and associated with the root of all evil and yet money ,and the spending of it, is extremely well marketed and propagandized as it is the only goal of the majority of our society.  Having it, or not having it &#8230; &#8216;defines&#8217; you.  But hey &#8230;. credit cards.  You can fake it.  You can finance it, at a price; your compounding interest due.  </p><p>Imagine &#8212; the PRESSURE</p><p>Ponder &#8212; you NEED money.  But, not to get by, to be somebody.</p><p>Realize &#8212; you MUST show it.  But not within your means, MAX your financing.</p><p>People feel in this society.  It used to be called &#8220;Keeping up with the Jones&#8217;&#8221; &#8230; which is where that useless, plastic family got the name for their show.  But, they are worth billions &#8230; perhaps &#8230; but how happy and self-assured can one be in their own person when they have to undergo so much plastic surgery that they no longer even remotely resemble their physical image?  I view this as sad and weak.  <strong>Shells with no spirit, no depth</strong>. This has become the poster-image for our society&#8217;s current state.  Twenty years of their influence &#8230; pushed by the same main stream media propagandists that have pushed to undermine our country.  The younger generation, that seems to believe TikTok or YouTube is a &#8216;job&#8217;, &#8216;host&#8217; podcasts and tear into people as &#8216;being' poor&#8217; if they say a product&#8217;s price being hocked is too high.  Our consumerism has peaked at a time when our money&#8217;s purchasing power has never been lower.    </p><p>Family Finance is, in fact, the number one source of argument amongst couples and the second most prevalent reason for divorce.  Is it any question that it is the source for stress and tension?  Is it any wonder that people rush to frenzy and greed if there is rumor of the ability to &#8216;make money&#8217;?  <strong>What could you do with this information if you understood the general behavior of the masses influenced within the context of finance and framed within peak consumerism</strong>?  </p><p>I spend a lot of time around this aforementioned shopping area.  I see it during weekdays, weekends and even some holidays.  It is a well-to-do, urbanesque area with both commercial rises and residential rises a few blocks from neighborhoods.  It is primarily a financial district as the commercial rises house offices of banks and financial centers and the median income is multiples above that of the tracked US median income.  There is plenty of egocentrism and self-importance as you may have guessed, and that is evident in driving habits to social interactions.   Regardless of any financial pressures the rest of the US may feel from peak consumerism, this is one of the few areas that one would expect to radiate anxiety and tension from issues of finance and consumerism.  In the five years I have spent in this area I have never really felt this emotional shift that I have seen this year.  The negative aspects of the financial influences is now far reaching into echelons that normally don&#8217;t feel it.  </p><p><em>Yeah, I know, people talk of &#8216;feeling&#8217; emotional states of other people or the environment &#8230; but it can also be seen.  It&#8217;s like playing poker and looking for &#8216;tells&#8217;.  Facial expressions, customer service interactions, driving courtesies, social greetings all betray inner emotional states and contribute to the environment.  Tension in a room spreads like sneezes, why would the general environment of a city or a country be any different if there were enough individuals contributing?  Perhaps you are saying to yourself, &#8220;well I can&#8217;t see this so no one else can see it&#8221; &#8230; and I would say, &#8220;how unfortunate for you&#8221;.</em></p><p>Emotion is like a contagion.  It is seen in so many social settings.  Laughter begets laughter and releases endorphins, fear and anxiety beget fear and anxiety and releases cortisol.  Emotion then influences behavior.  It is the reason for the numerous stories that comprise the manuscript, &#8216;Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds&#8217; &#8212; many of which are, coincidently, financially focused.  If you can therefore identify a root cause of an emotion and gauge probable and therefore predictable behavior associated with that emotion you can manipulate the masses.  The added benefit from this is that the masses, once a certain portion has taken up the emotional state, will coerce the rest of the masses (or at least a majority) to also take up the desired emotion and the reactive behavior.   &#8230; where did we see this?  panic &#8230; fear &#8230; masking &#8230; quarantine &#8230; imprisonment &#8230; firing from jobs &#8230; force them to take it &#8230;</p><p>What we witnessed was a real live extreme case of behavioral manipulation.  Is there any doubt as to the extent that people will carry out an outcome if emotional states that would induce that outcome are set in motion by manipulators (in this case it was the media).  Fear is a strong motivator.  Fear is usually directly associated with loss of life &#8230; but loss of livelihood is a close second&#8230; Greed&#8230;  Fear and greed &#8230; panic and frenzy.  Loss of life and loss of way of life.  Controlling the world of finance within which you live is a powerful manipulation tool.</p><p>-A societal framework has been constructed upon consumerism to the point that your defined by your consumption  </p><p>-Your ability to consume is then reduced due to influences such as inflation</p><p>-Your costs to consume beyond your means is increased due to rising interest rates</p><p>-You have already maxed your consumption within your means and due to the prices you can&#8217;t really get by, you can&#8217;t help but spend money on credit that you can&#8217;t really afford</p><p>-Pressure.  Irritability.  Irrationality.   Greed and Fear - Panic and Frenzy.</p><p>Throughout the years we have witnessed increases in debt, increases in prices of goods (the devaluing of dollar purchasing power), the destruction of middle-class jobs and the associate wages  &#8230;  imagine the construction of walls of a financial nature slowly but consistently squeezing down &#8230;</p><p>&#8230; these walls, of course, had been constructed by mega-corps and technocrats financed by banking structures and government entities &#8230;</p><p>&#8230; I would then say that we have also seen a corresponding rise in arrogant ignorance, disdain towards common courtesies and a complete disregard for civility as the rise of the preening self-importance has taken hold &#8230;   </p><p> The general disposition of our society isn&#8217;t difficult to predict.  Studies in human behavior and manipulation has been been underway since Bernays implemented marketing campaigns for sausages and cigarettes.  Our current societal emotional state was probably desired &#8230; foreseen.  There are numerous scenarios that become acceptable to the masses under states of emotional stress or duress &#8230; covid-19 &#8230; lockdowns &#8230; riots &#8230;  sacrificing of rights, privacy &#8230; the more rationality is usurped by emotion, the easier it is to get a knee-jerk reaction without consideration of the unintended consequences.</p><p><strong>When a culture has been developed based upon money and financing, and consumerism integrated into our self-worth, the outcome is that the control of the money supply doesn&#8217;t only control the nation, it controls the emotional state of the nation and thereby any reason and rationality in the nation.</strong></p><p>Here we are now &#8230; the money and shopping season.  Our crucible to test our emotional state, our societal and environmental mix.  There is never more stress to our emotional state than the holiday season and the months following when paying down the spending and caps off with tax day.</p><p>Watch our environmental mix &#8230;</p><p>the Financial Markets which will probably continue to take off</p><p>the Government Statistics which will continue to lie</p><p>Government spending continuing to funnel money to the Spy State</p><p>the Fed Reserve which will probably not reduce rates</p><p>the vaccine side-effects which continue to produce disabilities and death</p><p>the entertainment releases of Racial Tension, Civil War and Blackouts</p><p>the people only being able to get by as fuel prices have been forced down</p><p>None of this contributes to an easing of tension.  Some may say, thank goodness 2024 is an election year else things may be much worse.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Who watches the Watchers when the Watchers are Corrupted?]]></title><description><![CDATA[There was a reason the Constitution was designed, stating only the powers allowed]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/who-watches-the-watchers-when-the</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/who-watches-the-watchers-when-the</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2023 20:15:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14e117e7-b594-4e2d-aaf3-5dc10f5bd39f_275x183.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Say what you want about the founding of the nation and those that played the parts most remembered by history, but they well understood human behavior.  They understood that humans have never been able to leave anyone alone.  They understood that humans have had to subjugate and control any that did not fall under their rule, any that they could force to do their bidding.  They also well understood that it would be up to the people of the United States to uphold their republic because the base human nature of control and subjugation would also put individual freedoms at risk &#8212; and the instigator of that subjugation, with highest probability, would be their own government.</p><p>It was probably well known, even during the early formation of the united States, that through every conference to discuss documentation and powers entrusted to governing bodies that there were British sympathizers and spies within the ranks.  There would never simply be the mutual understanding that those that wanted to live as a subject should simply return to their estates in England and those that wanted a new life to carve out in a new land, fighting their way to so, could be left alone.  But that is not the way of human behavior.  Those sycophants, bootlickers of the crown would deem that everyone had to be subservient to the crown and believe it the only way, else be put to death.  Even in the early years there would be continual attempts to thwart the formation of a new nation by those that were the crown&#8217;s &#8216;true believers&#8217;.</p><p><em><strong>True Believer</strong>: (some paraphrasing) individuals that believe there is no hope for advancement or satisfaction as an individual  so they seek to subsume their lives (&#8216;hitch their wagon&#8217;) to a larger collective movement/group, believing all too should be a believer</em></p><p>The understanding that these people existed, and have throughout the centuries, is why we are familiar with such quotes as</p><p>&#8220;&#8230;a republic, if you can keep it.&#8221;</p><p>&#8220;&#8230;the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.&#8221;</p><p>and even passages from our own formative documents</p><p>&#8220;But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. &#8212;Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government.&#8221;</p><p><a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript">Declaration of Independence</a></p><p>These believers exist in all aspects of life, to varying degrees and , in fact, very few in number are those that are truly independent of influences or attachments, of unbiased emotion, and can see clearly the path upon which their lives and their country tread down.  This is the reason only around 3% of the colonists are thought to have actively fought in the Revolution, and even those would consist of some true believers to that cause.  In life you find these being the people that are attached to some sports team, whose mood changes with whether a team wins or loses, that are attached to a politician, or political ideology, or one aspect of a political ideology, or a religious ideology or even those that are still attached to a crown.  </p><p>I have found, empirically, that the degree/intensity of emotionality displayed with a particular association is the best indicator of the believer syndrome.  I would even go so far as to say psychosis, a delusion, because the believer syndrome is often based on a self-justifying &#8216;reasoning&#8217; for subjugating others to their &#8216;true belief&#8217;.  It is not uncommon to have such a strong association that individuals believe in a &#8216;utopia&#8217;, a &#8216;hero&#8217; figure battling for their &#8216;good side&#8217; against all others&#8217; &#8216;evil side&#8217;, or divine intervention, or their choice of digital coin, or even simply the delusion of saying &#8216;we&#8217; when there is no &#8216;we&#8217; in their chosen association.  There is no sense of a strong self-image, self-identity or self-confidence in their own being and, as such, there seems to minimal correlation with intellect or aptitude as the &#8216;believer&#8217; is entirely tied up in their view of self being tied up into the association and the success of the association.  These &#8216;true believers&#8217; are therefore, easily influenced through propaganda, especially, that suggesting they could find self, or influence or power over others due to their association to their ideology (improving self, only it never does)&#8230; but worse&#8230; due to the psychosis being primarily the view of self and their rise of self with the rise of their ideology, these people cant be convinced or educated otherwise &#8212;- they will never quit, they will never succumb even in continual loss &#8212;- see Marxists, Communists.</p><p>Human behavior is Fascinating. Terrifying. And yet, Well Understood.  It may very well be the longest, most studied subject on the planet next to religion (which is a closely associated topic). The degrees to which behavior changes from the individual level to the mob level has been researched exhaustively for use in <s>propaganda</s> marketing campaigns , used by religions, regimes, media, intelligence agencies, militaries, law enforcers, governments, corporations, sports teams, <s>indoctrinators</s> educators &#8230; see Edward Bernays&#8230;  to influence the masses - especially those most susceptible, the budding &#8216;true believers&#8217;.  </p><p><strong>As it is, humans already (biologically?) exhibit significant herd mentality -  frenzy towards greed, hysteria from fear - to what degree could the understanding of the &#8216;true believers&#8217; and propagandistic campaigns filled with ideologies fomenting fear or greed change society?  </strong></p><p>We witnessed first hand the instantaneous result of such an event pushed from fear and propaganda, but to what degree could this manifest if it has been taught and instilled for decades from youth to adult and now infiltrated our institutions due to those children now filling positions within these structures with their &#8216;true believer&#8217; ideology?  The event we witnessed was propagated, but primarily supported by all those children of the late 90&#8217;s early 00&#8217;s within those positions &#8230; think doctors, nurses in healthcare, mid-level HR mandating poison to work in the corporations, government stooges and institutions of &#8220;higher lern&#8217;n&#8221; run by twits with Piled-high &amp; Deep &#8216;degrees&#8217; in non-disciplines like &#8216;leadership&#8217; or &#8216;education&#8217; [those &#8216;programs&#8217; that allow the most basic of &#8216;thinkers&#8217; to get away with no development of reasoning to a solution and require only regurgitation of an ACCEPTED answer].  It was the result of thirty years of successful propaganda of fear.  </p><p>It was also noted the observably strong correlation of political ideology and the belief in the manifest propaganda, but I would again relate this less to the politics and more to the self-image aspect as it isnt a secret that those following and adhering to the marxist-communist doctrines typically have very low self-image to the point they the youngest self-inflict damage to their physical appearance.  The self-image aspect also accounts for the individuals that would (on either side of the political aisle) not agree with the touted political alignments, as there were many.  I have always tended to believe and witness that those who had to learn skills, apply, fail, and try again, only to perhaps fail again and again before a success is found, and did so from a young age developed a stronger sense of self&#8230; that which was not found in most of the &#8216;participation trophy&#8217; generation but for those that may have been raised in families that still instilled the value of failure and those were the families that still valued the individual.    </p><p>Without continuing too deeply down this rabbit hole of characteristics (although I find the study of behavior well-worth the journey), my driving point is three-pronged&#8230; </p><p>first, the lasting effects of the feelings of control and the purpose that came from these &#8216;true believers&#8217; latching onto the fear campaign&#8230; </p><p>second, the degree to which these &#8216;true believers&#8217; of the religion of control and subjugation would go to eliminate dissent&#8230; </p><p>third, a look into the depths of penetration into our institutions this rot of people, willing to subjugate at all costs, has penetrated&#8230;  </p><p>I think this first one has been evident to anyone watching this latest attempt to stir more fear of another &#8216;outbreak&#8217;.  Some of these people never took the masks off, still wearing them in public or driving around in their cars with masks on &#8230; and sure enough as soon as the latest named virus was tagged to be pushed [note the simultaneous and exact working used by ALL media ACROSS THE WORLD], those with masks couldnt wait to get outside and put them on again.  There have even been companies that IMMEDIATELY attempted to put in-office masking restrictions in place again.  The luke warm IQs in HR couldnt wait to implement power over others.  I am certain you also saw the attempts to protest locations that wouldnt reimplement masking or the institutions of &#8220;higher lern&#8217;n&#8221; that still mandate a shot.  All this even with the released information, finally, of the facts that masks never worked and the shots were not effective at anything except damaging people.</p><p>Perhaps what should draw the most attention within this first prong is the final point &#8230; that even with the final admissions that none of the steps taken with masks or lockdowns or shots having any positive effect (and actually displaying negative effects) these &#8216;true believers&#8217; still wont admit it.  They can not be convinced &#8230; as I said &#8230; even though the same sources that told them to carry out the response have now said the response was negative.  They latched on to an identity &#8230; they supported it with a belief and now they will not let go.  While the number that had their masks ready to go or had never taken them off is smaller proportionally, it should be alarming as you know there were probably numerous people that would have herded right into another lockdown if any of the propaganda could have been convincing.</p><p>The second prong &#8212; lengths to silence dissent &#8212; should have frightened you to the point that you sought to lock up or try the pushers of the propaganda of crimes against humanity.  The fact that the populace has, by and large, sloughed it off, is mind-boggling and actually is the best indicator of the successful implementation of attempts to create a docile populace regardless of ideology.  The &#8216;true-believers&#8217; suggested everything from forced vaccinations, prison camps, stealing your children and even death to any that would not follow their attempts of subjugation.  And even further, it has been suggested (and warrants a deeper look) into the pharmas and government knowing full well the subjugation and shots would do nothing but harm to the populace.  Yet there has been little to no actual mass reaction &#8230; its like the farmer deciding to call off the fall season slaughter of the herd till next year and the herd not really being any the wiser.  The fact that the &#8216;true believers&#8217; have never really accepted they were wrong, that all was propaganda, and that it is highly unlikely they will ever accept other than this ideology combined with the fact that they were will to call for camps and death &#8230; is only indicative of this outcome if the frenzy and hysteria can be stirred again for any reason.</p><p>the third prong - the depths to which this ideology has penetrated all institutions and areas of control &#8212; from the gatekeeper of media and information to the gatekeepers for hiring personnel to the gatekeepers within &#8220;higher lern&#8217;n&#8221; to the gatekeepers of societal obligations to secure the rights of the citizenry and weed out corruption in government.  When the gatekeepers are controlled, only those allowed through the gates will represent the institutions and ideologies.  </p><p>These institutions &#8230; are supposed to be our watchers over each other.  The three branches (executive, legislative, judicial) are supposed to watch each other for stepping over their bounds of power &#8230; the justice system is supposed to hunt down and remove rot and corruption &#8230; the academic institutions are supposed to represent research, reason, clarity and patience to prevent knee-jerk emotional reactions so that solid information leads to good solutions &#8230; medical institutions are (supposedly) to care for those that need care for illness, being unbiased of their patients beliefs &#8230; technological institutions are supposed to create more productive efficiencies, being entrusted to hold our information &#8230; media institutions are supposed to be offering the latest, mostly, non-biased information, being entrusted to be diligent in their reporting &#8230; an so on.</p><p>What happens when these institutions have been penetrated by a singular ideology?                                          &#8212; who is there to watch the watchers &#8212;</p><p>We are seeing now the continuation of the results of a singular ideology, beyond that of the pandemic, and further the depths to which ALL these institutions have been penetrated.  While this article has primarily referenced the most recent example of the pandemic as an observable example, the &#8216;true believers&#8217; latching onto this paradigm &#8230; I think I have also hinted at the fact that it is a belief in the religion of subjugation and the way that control and power would change the self-image of the &#8216;true believer&#8217; as they create the association for their self-image to the success and ultimate control that comes from the pushing of the ideology, marxist-communism.  Looking at the representation of the pandemic and the way ALL institutions coordinated should be the true focus.  </p><p>The same coordination is taking place in the boarder invasion, the tossing out of home of US Citizens and veterans in favor of illegal-lawbreaking invaders only here for free-shit&#8230;  no institution is adhering to established law </p><p>The same coordination is taking place in the energy transformation scam as coal and oil are replaced with the lies of wind and solar for the profit of the few through government subsidization.</p><p>The same coordination is taking place as China is being given land for factories, with US government subsidization, and land for agriculture here in the US to ship back to China.</p><p>The same coordination is taking place for the war in Ukraine as US tax money is sent to Ukraine to support their entire government and military purchases, while we witness Ukrainian pool parties on tik-tok and Hawaii under fire, and the money is then filtered back into military contracts in the US to line pockets of government officials.</p><p>The same coordination is taking place as government set-ups created J6 defendants, now treated as enemies, being sentenced to more time than murderers, through prejudicial jackboots and corrupt judges. </p><p>The same coordination is taking place as a singular political entity is being targeted through lawfare by all institutions&#8230;</p><p>There are no more watchers &#8230;</p><p>&#8212; who watchers the watchers &#8212;</p><p>&#8220;a republic, if you can keep it&#8221;</p><p>The recruiting mechanism has been easy &#8230; decades long &#8230; taught in schools, enforced through the destruction of the ability to develop a strong self-image (social media, participation trophies, lowering of any requirements for achievements).  Financed by governments (taxpayers and debt), billionaires and NGOs.  Distraction provided by the bread and circus events of sports and Hollywood and the end-goal referenced by the &#8216;bend-the-knee&#8217; and rewriting of history through Netflix movies and the blackening of characters and history.  The coordination should not come as a surprise when the ownership of media companies has always been associated with government figures and it isnt a far-reaching assumption that government rewards those that put them into their positions &#8230; a feedback loop. </p><p>The gatekeepers have taken to the ideology of DEI (as I have previously written of the impacts) and the hiring practice and filtration through the gatekeepers has created the prevalence of the ideology in every institution.   The economic impacts will be felt for years (bearing in mind we as a nation lasts that long), not only via the dumbing down of the workforce in favor of ideology over skillsets, but as the drain of resources (as a great wealth redistribution) is set to flow to the illegal invaders &#8230; NYC will be seen throughout the US.</p><p>Most will get emotional with this closing, but, this emotion only proves my point &#8230; On the other side of the subjugation, prominent marxist-communist ideology, and the fact that there has been little reaction to the calls for death and camps or replacement of the American, is the &#8216;true believers&#8217; of the hero ideology.  There is this belief that somehow a corrupted voting system will result in an actual representation of the vote or that the front runner, while being attacked by opponents, is somehow going to have the ability or even the desire to do what the populace will not &#8230; save America.  I have never believed that this font-runner is anything more than a distraction, a useful division of those that are dissenters and those the a marxists.  It is easy to play out the &#8216;true-believer&#8217; psychosis and use phrases to rile them up and attack&#8230; the outcome of the &#8216;true-believers&#8217; attacking dissent only requires dissent, as was witnessed in the pandemic.  Anyone could fuel their useful idiot emotions and their desire to use the coordinated power of the infiltrated institutions to the end of destroying the dissent &#8230; All the while, the dissent pacifies the populace into waiting to be saved so that they can believe they will hold on to their owned properties, the money in their IRAs or 401ks &#8230; that their material possessions dont have to be sacrificed in the pursuit of freedom. </p><p>While waiting &#8230; we are invaded, we are bankrupt, we are selling everything to China, we are setting up final technologies to employ facial and biometrics to track everyone on travel (airlines) to what they are spending (CDBCs) and imprisoning those that have dissented through setup (J6).  How likely is it you hold onto you materialism when there are no watchers that watch for you.</p><p>&#8220;if you would sacrifice freedom for a little security, you deserve neither freedom nor security&#8221;</p><p></p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Inflection Point]]></title><description><![CDATA[US Debt & Intended Consequences]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/inflection-point</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/inflection-point</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:30:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two images&#8230;</p><p>The US National Debt, mind you this one was a 2023 est.  We have PASSED this estimate at $33 TRILLON.  $1 TRILLION was added to the debt in just the past 3 months.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg" width="482" height="322.03956043956043" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:608,&quot;width&quot;:910,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:482,&quot;bytes&quot;:100633,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Frf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb194752e-6b8b-49dd-a445-22b71642cee8_910x608.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>And an exponential curve&#8230;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png" width="485" height="287.0117474302496" 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!90ch!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe93e2b07-2a4e-4788-8ff9-be70eaaf184f_681x403.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The basic characteristic for an exponential curve is that it increases, at an increasing rate.  This means that for any increment of time, if is greater than the previous same increment of time.  Keep this in mind as all hyper-inflation exhibits an exponential curve pattern.</p><p>I will be the first to say that scale can be deceiving in graphical images and so one should always be astute and examine the actual numbers before succumbing to the first emotional response generated by the imagery.  This is a practice often used to incite some kind of emotional response &#8230; usually fear &#8230; perhaps you remember the &#8216;hockey stick&#8217; graph?  The Al Gore Hockey Stick was specifically manipulated to instill just that&#8230; fear.  However, these days, everyone that does a financial vid, podcast or economic report is always trying to click-bait people into an emotionally driven headline, but this extends into every <s>propaganda</s> &#8216;news&#8217; report seen on any media service.  as news propagandists say  &#8212; Emotion sells &#8230; Fear sells &#8230; Sex sells &#8230;</p><p><em>The overkill is stunning and most people do best to simply shut off their media and live life &#8230; it is much more peaceful.</em></p><p>  Pointing out the fact that these people, whether the <s>controlled-opposition</s> &#8216;alternative&#8217; media or the MSM, main stream media, all make a living from your being vested in their stories, one could easily pass off any pass off any of their headlines as more b.s. fear mongering to sellf ad space or off-grid solar generators.  I, myself, really dislike these people and I have always understood that, if the threat was great, it is better to warn people in the hopes of societal awareness and change rather than attempting to skim from the people in a paid newsletter to pad their own nests.  The reality being that if calamity was possible, no amount of padding is going to save them and they will reap the same consequences as everyone else.  My point being, I write these in the hope there is a spreading awareness, not for profit or pay, because I am well aware that my fate rests with the consequences that society will face regardless of individual preparation and to think otherwise is pure ignorance. </p><p><em>Unfortunately, it looks to be too late and we will see these consequences</em>. </p><p>Now, no one listens to my input - but I also dont really advertise it.  You can go to my twitter, X account and check it out.  If you were to page back to 2020 you will find that I have never strayed from the understanding that hyperinflation would ensue &#8230; that it would be commodities that would skyrocket and all other paper or nonproductive assets would crash.  I also understood that the fed was going to jack rates, fast, and they werent going to conduct any cuts &#8230; they couldnt &#8230; because we only have paper assets and the rest of the world produces the commodities.  Simply printing paper to pay for real products wasnt going to be accepted by the rest of the world that doesnt have this luxury of running a huge deficit &#8230; this is in effect serfdom to US controllers.  </p><p>The printing itself wasnt necessarily the issue, after all, for some time, the tax receipts collected from the people and businesses in the US actually covered the interest on the deficit and then some.  (Think of it as a credit card.)  The deficit was able to be paid by actual economic activity and even though we had a huge deficit, we also have a huge economy and so it wasnt as much worry if the government was ever going to wise up and attempt to create an actual budget.  However, almost 15 years of a 0% rate on debt on did exactly what a 0% rate on a credit card does to an individual &#8230;. rather than pay it down, they transfer the balance and spend more.  It isnt difficult to then imagine that at some point, if not controlled, this would create so much debt that the country would have to use debt to pay the interest on the debt. &#8230;it has never been controlled.     </p><p>The past few years have added Trillions to the debt, adding debt at an increasing rate, so much like any individual with bad credit due to increasing debt and minimal increase in income, you have to pay higher interest to borrow money.  Our 0% rate expired.  Again, even with this rate increase, if there was a controlled debt plan and a plan to coordinate a budget was implemented we wouldnt have to worry as much about rising interest rates, but this didnt and wont happen.  Our debt is due to government payrolls, government contracts, government services, government bailouts and military spending and no government is going to cut any of these, it will only increase these expenditures.     </p><p>These increases are, of course happening&#8230; we have seen bailouts of banks, a huge influx of millions of invaders that are increasing debt, military spending that is increasing debt, foreign wars that are increasing debt, government entities increasing payrolls and debt&#8230; the point at which debt is needed to payoff debt is inevitable.  $1 Trillion in debt added just the past 3 months.</p><p>Let&#8217;s introduce the other aspect of increasing the amount of debt through increasing the amount of currency flowing through the economy, the inflation aspect.  </p><p>I have made brief mention of this before and other &#8216;economists&#8217; may disagree &#8230; but I dont give a shit what others say &#8230; thus far I have been primarily correct in my assertions of what was going to happen post Mar 2020 and most others have followed the herd from the various &#8212; <em>there wont be rate increases, there wont be more than one rate increase, at any point and time will be a rate cute, there will be disinflation, there will be stagflation, there will be some other made up b.s. term to convince people their money is with a financier that understands whats going on</em> &#8212; when total available money (debt creation is also money) is increased, it inevitably flows into the economy and prices inevitably increase.  The only way prices dont increase is if supply increases correspondingly to the increase in money when demand remains the same.  Why is this?  There is a competition for resources and it starts at the raw materials/product inputs/commodities.  </p><p>Think of the lumber shortage &#8230; Due to supply constraints, those that could bid on lumber contracts (big box store suppliers and contractors) had to pay more to fill their needs because of competition and limited supply.  But people werent traveling anywhere and got the $1400 paycheck from the gubmint so they also had more money and time to fill and were willing and able to pay the prices for the lumber.  Lumber cleared the shelves and more was needed, lumber costs went up continually week to week, even in a day at one point.  Eventually supply began to increase again, people began to use money for other expenditures and competition/demand for lumber stabilized, albeit at a higher price.  This is the impact of available and increased money and limited supply.</p><p>Back to the US debt&#8230;</p><p>The government has increased the money supply to the point that prices have risen in every aspect of an individuals&#8217; life.  Food, fuel, products &#8230; is there anything that you arent paying substantially more to acquire?  At this point, I will introduce the other concept of increasing interest rates by the Fed Reserve &#8230; to curb inflation.  The idea behind the increase in interest rates is that this will decrease the money supply.  If an individual or business has to pay higher rates for credit/debt then they wont be approved for as much total debt as they may with a lower interest rate (all other measures for approval being constant) and the overall affect will be a reduction of money supply.  What we have is catastrophic and intentional &#8230; increasing rates AND increasing debt AND manipulated supply.</p><p>We havent seen the runaway prices as of yet due to the fact that the economy is actually imploding.  You cant believe the b.s. from the Fed via Powell that the economy is strong.  A strong economy wouldnt see major shipping and logistics providers going bankrupt &#8230; a strong economy needs goods and materials shipped across a country.  A strong economy wouldnt see freight, shipping container, prices decrease to the point that shipping companies are almost at a breakeven.  </p><p>(See FreightWaves latest article &#8220;Trouble Ahead: Container Shipping Rates Sinking Further Into The Red&#8221; - &#8220;<strong>[Shipping] Rates continue to lose ground, bending under the pressure of insufficient demand and growing overcapacity (of available containers).</strong>&#8221; )  </p><p>This report comes during September when companies should be preparing for the holiday season, gradually stocking up inventory for sales post Halloween &#8230; its not coming this year, the inventory of useless items is overstocked.  This is not a strong economy.  This is an economy treading water.  If you actually dive into the CPI (consumer price index), the measure that is used to measure inflation, the elements that have declined are areas that are luxury spending.  Declines in overnight expenditures such as hotels for vacation, declines in food outside the home such as restaurants.  Increases in areas such as automotive maintenance because you fix what cant be replaced when its too expensive.  Increases in food at the market.  Increases in energy costs.  Money is spent on the necessities.  </p><p>I should also take a moment to pause and mention that any measures that are based on prices and correspondingly revenues are not going to be appropriately compare to historic values of even four or five years ago.  When prices on items increase 10 - 40%, you can sell significantly fewer units and still beat revenues of previous years.  For example if you sold 100 units for $10 = $1000 revenue &#8230; but if prices increase 20% to $12 per unit then a $1000 of revenue can be matched by selling 84 units.  This is important to understand in reference to all supposed revenue reporting by companies and by all government reporting data.  This means that fewer resources are needed to produce the same revenues and it disguises the stock market reported revenues, it disguises the economic output and it disguises how significant the decline has become in our economy.  Perhaps you now wonder about supposed remarkable jobs reports and low unemployment?</p><p>Unemployment numbers should come with an asterisk and like most government data, these numbers have been filled with manipulation and lies.  For the past 7 months, all employment numbers have had to be revised DOWNWARD &#8230; FOR 7 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS&#8230; quietly after they were first reported as being amazing.  There is no way a team of analysts are wrong 7 times in a row.  Even a 50/50 guess would never see (highly improbable) seven incorrect guesses in a row.  What&#8217;s even more sinister however is that once the public has been told that the numbers were amazing, there is almost never a mention that the reported numbers were all wrong to the high side and all needed to have significant reductions in the jobs created.  I will also make mention that the unemployment filings have to be actual filings of claims to be counted and have to be people who are recorded as looking for work.  If they find part-time work, they are no longer unemployed.  If they run out of benefits before finding work, well they are no longer unemployed.  I will also make mention, again, that between the excess deaths and increased disabilities six million working age adults, 25 - 50 years of age have been removed from the workforce leaving a few million job openings and I will also make mention that numerous people have had to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet.  You might begin to see why there are jobs available and supposed low unemployment, but less labor is needed if you sell fewer units and still make revenue.  </p><p>There are numerous dynamics taking place and it would surely be enough to cripple the US with just the debt and supply restrictions, mentioned above, being intentionally implemented and disguised but I will introduce two more &#8230;</p><p><strong>We have increasing debt, rising rates, lower production and restricted energy and raw materials, are being invaded from the outside and being destroyed from the inside.</strong>    </p><p>Foreign countries will not come to our aide, they have now made it a point that they will reverse sanction the US by restricting shipments of energy and resources, note the BRICS and its affect as a coalition, not even needing to be a currency system.  To example, Saudi Arabia and Russia have announced that they will restrict the flow of diesel ( the primary fuel for all logistics and power plant generators ).  If we wont produce our own energy and the world cuts off their shipments how will that go? &#8230; because what nation in their right mind would slave away to trade real assets for paper printings or succumb to the whims of a weaponized dollar system?   </p><p>Currently, we are being intentionally invaded on the southern boarder as 88% of the invaders are military age fighting males.  The staging in Panama is being setup and funded by the DHS and the government of the US.  The shipping of these invaders from the boarders into the urban cities is a political stunt an those that cheered it are morons.  All that occurred is that those that should have been stopped in their tracks were moved inland on the taxpayers dime &#8230; and so it caused uproar in the areas like CA and NY but the invaders are still here.  The boarder fight is another theater.  TX pretends to do something and the Federal Government undoes it.  All the while more and more pour into the US.  The CONgress spouts fury and anger all for the cameras.  Nothing is done.  Nothing will change.  But the theater of emotion and anger is meant to pacify the public until the deeds are done.  The invaders are causing major cities to go belly up from financial debt and yet they are still trying to provide food, shelter and goods and only causing the printing of more money that is going to be competing with the general populace for a limited supply of goods.  We have been infiltrated in media, technology, schools and in government to fill the roles with American hating jackboots that will only answer to those that control a money supply and will shut down anyone speaking up against those offenses to the rights of the American people.</p><p>It shouldnt be difficult to surmise &#8230; increasing debt, reduced productivity, reduced energy, reduced supply of goods, contracting economy and a vast increase in foreign invaders &#8230;where this is going.  </p><p>Pay close attention to the debt increase &#8230; remember increasing at an increasing rate and that hyperinflation always means societal collapse.</p><p></p><p></p><p>    </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Restrictive Supply Manipulation</p><p>The intentional elimination by current government of all energy/drilling permits for oil/diesel/gas (ANWAR) &#8230; the elimination of mining permits for essential productive metals and energy (NV, MN, WV) &#8230; the attempted elimination of petrol autos and trucking (CA) &#8230; lets not even get into stoves and fireplaces</p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Critical Mass]]></title><description><![CDATA[Crypto Currencies were always a control system...]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/critical-mass</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/critical-mass</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2023 16:00:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6566d485-061f-448d-bada-106c118442e2_1097x640.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When given the introduction of a new product, usually an advancement in technology, the critical mass is the inflection point at which the number of people adopting usage of the new product is &#8216;self-sustaining&#8217;.</p><p>Essentially, all companies acquire substantial debt during start-up to fund the foundational assets that will be needed to support services.  These assets may be warehouses, offices, employees, info tech infrastructure, equipment etc&#8230;  </p><p>When considering a technology based offering there are a few things a company hopes will occur:</p><p><strong>One</strong> hope, is that these assets will be able to provide for services beyond the number of adopters to a point that is making a profit, well beyond the &#8216;break-even&#8217;.  For a tech company this might be processing speed and storage with continual maintenance on the computer code that supports interactions amongst the adopters.  If the company maintains is own servers and doesn&#8217;t make use of another company&#8217;s servers (for simplicity using another company&#8217;s server space is &#8216;cloud&#8217; storage) the a consistent cool climate must be maintained for optimal server operation and this will probably require additional cost considerations.</p><p>If we were to look at the concept of &#8216;break-even&#8217;, the technical definition is dividing the total fixed costs by the unit contribution margin.  At first read this may seem complex but this calculation simply seeks to separate costs to provide a service or a product between its <strong>variable costs</strong>, those that grow with output </p><p>(<em>like the cost of lathe machine maintenance and bits on a machining line as the number of units increase, perhaps even overtime or hiring additional machinists</em>)  </p><p>and the <strong>fixed costs</strong>, those that remain the same. </p><p>(<em>rent for the facility or salaries for the managers overseeing the line</em>)</p><p>The unit contribution is similar to gross margin per unit with the addition of any other variable costs that can be traced to the production or service, we might call these variable overhead costs related to the production process or providing the service.  To get to the unit contribution margin then we might take </p><p><strong>(total revenues - direct labor - direct materials - variable overhead costs) / total units</strong>  </p><p> If you think about this intuitively, the product must pay for its own cost to produce including the labor to produce it, the materials that go into its production and any increase in associated materials (like drill bits) or equipment to produce it &#8230; AND all the additional costs that go into production, you could think of these as supporting elements like the building, salaries for areas like HR, Finance and Accounting, IT, Marketing and areas that are not directly creating the product or providing the service.  Now, if you are going to make a toy and it needs an assembly line and manufacturing line to complete the toy before it is shipped to a distributor, one should understand that a certain number of these toys need to be produced AND sold to support all these operations.  (this is your &#8216;break-even&#8217; concept)</p><p>Add one more level.  Consider that the product you desire to produce and the equipment you have purchased to produce it, simply can&#8217;t produce the required number to break-even no matter how you attempt to optimize your production.  In fact, the company would have to add more equipment and labor to meet the current break-even point, but of course, by adding more costs the break-even would be moved even higher &#8230; there is no economies of scale. </p><p><em>(&#8230; another term I won&#8217;t define exactly, but basically if there was economies of scale, once a base of production assets are used, very small incremental additions of assets could add multiples to production output.)</em></p><p>All that said,  many tech applications are a large investment upfront and require a considerably large number of PAID users to reach their &#8216;break-even&#8217;.  Some of these costs are cut by these companies not using their own server farms and putting their service on a &#8216;cloud&#8217; &#8230; for example AWS, Amazon Web Services, which is actually the foundation of Amazon&#8217;s earning and not their marketplace &#8230; but, all said the companies require adoption or their services or else all the upfront cost is lost.  </p><p>This is further complicated by the Critical Mass theory, in which once a certain percentage of the population adopts usage, the rest of the population will adopt usage simply to stay in pace with everyone else &#8230; think of it as peer pressure.  Prime examples of Critical Mass are the usage of Microsoft Office products or Facebook vs MySpace.  If Critical Mass isn&#8217;t reached, like with MySpace, the product is mostly lost.  If Critical Mass is reached, like with Facebook, then the company must pay close attention to the capability of current assets and support to provide the service and the degree to which further incremental additions to labor and equipment can meet the increased demand for the product and hope they can stay above their &#8216;break-even&#8217;.  </p><p>A <strong>second</strong> hope is that once a product begins to come close to its Critical Mass, which can be measured in general awareness of the product, other companies may begin to design or build complementary products that provide additional benefits.  This helps to speed up adoption and secure the number of users because if people are spending money on the complementary products, then they will probably use the service.  One might consider the initial adoption of cell phones and the eventual creation of apps that could make use of the cell phones tools &#8230; perhaps QR codes, photos and editors, face time calls, and of course the spawning of social media sites of all kinds.</p><p>A <strong>third</strong> hope is that the product becomes synonymous with everyday life.  Think Google and, again, the smart phone.  How many out there can go even minutes without their smart phone, using it to document every event in life or using it as their portable brain through Google, which additionally acts as a communication device, storage space, mapping device and so on...</p><p>Okay, when is this getting to crypto-currencies?  &#8230;Now.</p><p>Let&#8217;s start with a couple of basics.</p><p><strong>Cryptography</strong>.  Encoding and Decoding data, usually through the usage of complex mathematics but even the very old Cracker Jack decoder rings were a form of encoding and decoding.  With the introduction of computers and the computational power to perform &#8216;brute-force&#8217; attempts to break codes, mathematics provided complexity in the encoding process.</p><p><strong>Blockchain</strong>.  At its simplest, it is a open, decentralized, unalterable, digital ledger of transactions with considerable security structures to prevent tampering.    This ledger can store all the information and types of information that databases can store, from photos and documents to &#8216;coins&#8217; and any transaction details.  </p><p>(<em>One might think of their SQL database in which, not only can one create, delete (not to confuse with erase) and update tables, but the key is that one can also track all users and actions that accompanied any interaction with the database so that there is always a traceable record to any transacting with the SQL database.  This tracking of all actions is immutable, unalterable.  Typically an IT department may be the only ones able to access detailed records of transactions, but in a blockchain, all users on the network can see the transactions.</em>)   </p><p>So&#8230; what makes it a &#8216;blockchain&#8217;.  This is the descriptive method in which the blockchain algorithm stores and protects the transaction data.  The creator of the blockchain will set up the method to enter and store data and the transaction details.  This entry and storage is recorded to all machines that participate and a set amount of data storage will be set aside to store transactions, known as a &#8216;block&#8217; of data.  When this storage capacity is reached,  this block is &#8216;sealed&#8217; with an encryption algorithm.  The block is then &#8216;verified&#8217; by the participating machines to ensure that all machines have exactly the same block.  Once completed this block is added to the &#8216;chain&#8217; of all previous blocks.</p><p>This process differs slightly depending on the designed process and blockchain, but the primary elements are the same&#8230; ensuring the integrity of the data through open access to verify the data with the addition that the data stored is checked in redundancy by all participating machines.  The algorithm itself, for storage and encryption, may also be set to depend on all participating machines so that each machine processes a piece of the algorithm, intra-dependent on all in the network.   </p><p>(<em>there are public, private and mixed types of blockchains with different permissions and methods to validate transactions and store data.  I am just trying to give a conceptual understanding.</em>)</p><p>In order for someone to dedicate a portion of the functionality of their machine to the blockchain, they are provided a &#8216;reward&#8217;.  Often this &#8216;reward&#8217; is a token, or coin, associated with the network, for example a fractional amount of a cryptocurrency.</p><p>While, people believe that a &#8216;blockchain&#8217; or cryptocurrency means anonymity &#8230; it doesn&#8217;t, at least not in the way most people would expect it to and definitely not for the majority of blockchains in use.  It take several layers of encryption, randomization, and additional computation to achieve satisfactory anonymity, but for now this isn&#8217;t important.    </p><p><strong>Currency</strong>.  Black&#8217;s Law Definition: coined money and bank notes or other paper money as are authorized by law and do in fact circulate from hand to hand as the medium of exchange.  </p><p>                  <strong>Money</strong>.  Black&#8217;s Law Definition: unit of account, <strong>representative of value</strong>,                          medium of exchange <strong>recognized by common consent</strong>&#8230;</p><p>                  <strong>Value</strong>.  Beneficial.  Scarce.  Note: Value implies scarcity, scarcity does not                        imply value.</p><p>Okay &#8230; all the fine tunings and references are out of the way.</p><p>At this point, the zealotry of a cryptocurrency shit comes screaming out in anticipation of someone perhaps degrading their precious cryptos.  They gang up and scream out, primarily because they are HEAVILY vested to a crypto or series of cryptos, saying an author couldn&#8217;t possibly understand the crypto concept, or how it will save humanity&#8230; when in truth the screaming out drips of greed, addiction, desperation and despair... because what if the idea is that unstable as to not achieve adoption?  I don&#8217;t recall any major issues if someone was not keen on Facebook and yet it achieved its Critical Mass.  No - the world of crypto ( while there are wonderful uses) is set upon by greed and ideologues desiring control and power under the guise of cryptos providing liberation.  </p><p>The fact is that any public blockchain requires a substantial investment in computing power&#8230; to the point that there may not be enough of a return to breakeven, at least not from a currency perspective, but it is even difficult to get adoption for private blockchains due to the initial investment in servers for computation and storage.  You might consider looking into Maersk and its attempt to implement a private blockchain amongst various countries&#8217; customs services and ports to speed up shipping paperwork and contracts, and transit times.  The initial investment was so substantial for those participants that a Maersk subsidization had to be on the table for consideration.   </p><p>The consensus seems to be that the more transactions being attempted on a public network, the more resources (computing power) needed.  This is not tenable to any network without massive subsidization.  In fact, due to the continually need to spend on the computing power necessary to support the system, one could directly relate the cryptocurrency system to a dwindling purchasing power of the cryptocurrency itself.  Not unlike a fiat system, except that rather than a flood of debt and paper, the expenditures have to go to electricity and hardware to keep the system propped up.  Now, there very well could be the next evolution in chips or algorithms that double the speed and data storage writing/retrieval process for blockchain, however, even with this the fact remains there are costs well outside of this direct input into the process.  </p><p>We can begin simply with electrical needs.  Not just for the computers to solve the algorithms, process transactions and store and retrieve data which has already been established as not having any economies of scale, but electricity to maintain climate for the servers and certainly the must be some consideration for redundancies of hardware and storage incase of &#8216;Acts of God&#8217; and nature.  Do you really trust a network built upon these &#8216;mining&#8217; farms in warehouses operating were the electricity and rent is cheapest?  I dont think many people relate the same electrical grid collapse that is recognized if everyone drove an electric car to the situation of continually expanding computing power to service transactions if everyone used a blockchain based cryptocurrency.  It just simply isnt the same as a numerical, 1s and 01 banking wire transfer.</p><p>We can go beyond the electrical needs to the raw material needs to construct the hardware necessary to construct the internet access for the planet, or all of the various types of hardware necessary to access the network and store data from the network.  The same lithium and other materials, that so many have stated dont exist in the quantities (at least accessible currently) to provide for the &#8216;green&#8217; energy EV&#8217;s, solar power, wind farms for the world over, would be needed to complete the necessary hardware for computing and storage.  One of the reasons the cryptocurrency (government sponsored) failed in Nigeria is due to the fact that so many areas of the country had zero access to the network for a transactions, or simply didnt have the phone, laptop, notebook to access the network in the first place.  Once again, any participation, by anyone takes an initial investment &#8230;  so you would have to labor and purchase equipment just to be allowed to earn money and participate in the transaction system or else your equipment would have to be purchase for you by &#8230; most likely government.</p><p>I want to make clear that all monetary systems require some input into initiation and maintenance,  costs, in order to implement them at scale for a given region or country, even fiat.  Imagine the people involved in the creation of a fiat currency.  The raw materials for the paper, a special composite, the ink of various mixtures and the plates to print.  All of these had to be researched, developed and processed through hours and hours of labor.  Then you have to consider the utilities and energy involved in the printing, packaging, shipping and tracking of the currency to its desired locations.  On top of these costs, there are the costs to monitor for forgeries, a tactic so common in financial warfare to cripple an enemies economy.  Yes, even fiat has substantial cost, and many overlook the historical relationship of metallic (precious metal) currencies and the institution of slavery and war.</p><p>I did comment on this in previous articles, but the historic precious metal systems of gold and silver could not have existed to the degree seen in history without the feedback loop of war to conquer to gain more tax in the form of gold and to gain slaves to work the mine to get more gold, only to pay the armies in foreign lands conquering to gain more tax&#8230;  Imagine the costs to acquire gold as a money.  It must be mined, shipped processed, purified, bricked, and shipped to be minted/coined.  If you track its historical usage and kingdoms and temples that acquired gold, you will find how temples became the first lenders and how this metal was supplied by gold merchants.  The gold merchants didnt pay people to work the mines, they paid mercenary armies to capture slaves to work the mines and would supply kingdoms around the world with the metal to be coined at a financed cost&#8230; no &#8230; gold, realistically is not much better, but for the fact we have equipment that replaced servitude.</p><p>The cost to benefit must be considered and the risks inherent and added to a chosen system before a system is settled.  The fact that the cryptocurrency system has no economies of scale and continual cost increases correlating to increased usage with the initial investment in a device to use the system and the necessary infrastructural and hardware additions to implement a system makes it an unlikely candidate for usage in the form a transactional currency.  The only way things like this take hold is if there is subsidization&#8230; which is, of course, government or a private corporation spending either your tax dollars (former) or revenues (latter) to &#8216;foot the bill&#8217; for the costs.  This is inclusive of devices to access the network (think Obama phones).  </p><p>The people cant fund a public blockchain if there is a continual cost to the infrastructure.  So&#8230;if government or a private corporation is the funder&#8230; the blockchain will most assuredly be private, centralized, controlled.  In fact, given the money being tossed around, I would believe that private companies have purchased numerous server farms that were being used on a &#8216;public&#8217; blockchain simply because the farms are already set-up, facilitating both the computing power needed for transactions with the additional benefit of people believing the blockchain is still public and tamper-proof.  What happens if all &#8216;participants&#8217; of a public blockchain are purchased by a single entity &#8230; it, by definition, becomes private as one entity controls all &#8216;participants&#8217;, it becomes controllable.</p><p>Unfortunately, this is the only end state for cryptocurrencies if it is ever to be implemented, a private, controllable, monitorable blockchain &#8230;its unlikely to have an unforced mass adoption&#8230; the costs are continual and too high &#8230;the public will be purchased and become private.  If we roll back to our concept of adoption of a new product and how a product that requires an initial investment will need to also acquire a certain number of adopters to reach a &#8216;break-even&#8217; point to pay for its costs, we could also surmise that this number of adopters would have a time limit to acquire.  There were, of course, early adopters twenty years ago and then the trend followers (typically only motivated by status through association or greed) but how many concepts can be said to be due to catch on and reach a critical mass of adoption after being ignored by the masses for twenty years?  None.</p><p>&#8230;but&#8230; <em>there have been exchanges created &#8230; and the &#8216;price&#8217; is thousands of dollars &#8230; and there is the creation of trading ETFs &#8230; and this means adoption and decentralization from control and eventual critical mass of adoption</em>.  </p><p>No - not really.  None of this is due to adoption by the masses from the bottom up, its due to the attempt to force an adoption by those that control the masses of money (the few - the 1%) from the top down.  When a situation of critical mass is reached and adoption of the product by the masses is inevitable, the masses will force change from the bottom up.  The sheer numbers of the masses of people will create a situation that pays the cost of any initial investment into the new product to make the masses happy and from this, as mentioned, signs of complimentary products develop.  A perfect example of this critical mass adoption and its effects on society when for a currency system technology is credit cards.</p><p> A ubiquitous payment tool and technology today, in the 80&#8217;s and earlier credit cards (or debit cards) was vastly rejected by stores and store owners and if you didn&#8217;t have cash you couldn&#8217;t purchase items.  Why was it rejected by stores &#8230; cost.  Not only did a store have to have access to a network, but it needed a device to utilize the magnetic strips AND the store had to pay a portion of the transaction to the credit card companies for the convenience to the customer, although it is also arguable that the store benefited because credit enabled more purchases that would otherwise not have been made.  The masses, however, enjoyed the fact that they could purchase more and have a line of credit at their fingertips.  If one store offered the availability to purchase with a card and another refused, shoppers would patronize the store that offered the option to pay with the card.  The masses didn&#8217;t care that the costs had to be fronted by the stores (and through their taxes for infrastructure development to allow for network access), the masses enjoyed more spending power and wanted to use it. The masses forced a change. </p><p>This did not, and will not happen with crypto.  Why?  Any adoption of a product has to have any (perceived) costs paid by someone else (these costs aren&#8217;t simply monetary but also can be considered as the amount of time necessary to learn how to use the product), and there has to be perceived benefit that substantially outweighs the costs.  For monetary acceptance, there has to be no perceived cost to the user, absolutely minimal learning necessary to use the monetary technology (think a credit card swipe or a phone tap) and some kind of additional benefit, like the credit card and the perceived benefit of additional spending power.  Cryptos work in the exact opposite.  There is a substantial learning curve, continual investment necessary to maintain the infrastructure and the investment in new technologies by the user.  Monetary acceptance by the masses is always, and proven historically, the requirement for a currency and monetary system.  And acceptance always correlates to ease of use.        </p><p>Sure you may get short term profits from trading on the behavioral influx or escape by traders of cryptocurrencies, but the necessary infrastructural investments, the fragmentation of participants and relative ease of creation of cryptocurrencies makes any given crypto (for its supposed intended purpose) non-unique in its benefits offering, non-scarce in its availability and costly to its user.  Additionally, it has trickled out the supposed benefits of the cryptos being anonymity like cash and the decentralization of control as a separation from banking and financial institutions is false.  Transactions can and are tracked and the most interested parties in the marketplaces for cryptos are &#8230;. financial institutions.</p><p>The fact that blockchain technology, however interesting as a technology, has had only minimal adoption by even government entities, should speak volumes about its cost to benefit and, let&#8217;s face it, mostly its cost.  By now it should be evident with the widespread discussions of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) that the only level of power and control with enough capability to invest that could possibly also manage the cost are the banks of the banks.  Enough articles have covered the evil scenarios during which banks can track, monitor, freeze, control all purchases &#8230; but as we saw with the Canadian truckers, the governments and banks already have this control with the exception of an increasingly shrinking number of transactions in cash. However, there have even been targeted regulations on cash transactions, cash deposits, cash withdrawals and simply holding cash (ever heard of asset forfeiture?).  </p><p>Why the hangers on of blockchain and the cryptocurrencies when there is no economies to scale, continual cost expenditures by the users themselves and few benefits relative to other available systems (and no, again, its not untraceable, its not invisible, its not uncontrollable)?  The actual reason is the implementation of the communist global state.</p><p>This idea might be a jump for most people.  The believed failures of communism are believed to have been solved through the usage of technology.  This is why we see the rise of this UBI (universal basic income), CBDCs and the technocratic state all at the same time.  If we were to look at the way a free market economy works, supply of products and demand of products dictate the price and quantity of the products produced.  Oversimplifying, when the price becomes too high for a segment of the population there is a reduction in the quantity demanded.  This means there is inventory left on the shelves and no more orders submitted to the factory for these products.  The factory would then lose money trying to make more of these products and so must react by either slowing production or changing product lines or other strategic changes to remain competitive to sell a product.  </p><p>In a communist state, the government determines what will be produced, develops a metrics to measure productive &#8216;success&#8217; and has no concern of whether or not the product is being purchased since the government foots the production bill.  As a couple of examples, the old soviet union had a factory making construction items like nails.  The government decided pounds of nails was the measurement that they wanted to use to evaluate the production process &#8230; so when the government demand more pounds of nails, the factory manager simply made larger nails.  These nails were not at all useful, but that didnt matter since no one was purchasing them anyway.  This same concept came into play with tractor production.  The government knew tractors were needed to produce food.  A manufacturing plant was setup to produce tractors&#8230; and fields of rusting tractors were left to rot away upon completion because there was no demand by farmers needing, or probably willing to work without benefit from the labor, tractors to cultivate the land. (Also remember Stalin demonized the farmers and landowners and slaughtered them all)  Communism has, and always will be, the example of the arrogantly ignorant bureaucrat making decisions on processes that they know nothing about - making everything worse.  </p><p>The belief is, now, that a techno-communist state can control all aspects of society and production that will eliminate that arrogantly ignorant level of bureaucracy.  </p><p>This all seems a bit convoluted, I am sure, but in order to introduce this final state of technocratic-communism and how critical mass adoption of blockchain is necessary to achieve it, I believe an explanation of the issues of blockchain and on the concept of critical mass and the mass adoption of products, in addition to, why blockchain hasn&#8217;t had mass adoption is necessary to see why forced adoption is the only play left and how it would fit into an endgame.   </p><p>The theory to the control mechanism is that, much like a video game, if all aspects of how much any worker is paid, the price for all raw materials and final production price for all goods is controlled, then there will be no rusting tractors in the fields.  Some have already outlined this scenario.  (high-level)  AI will work out the computation and the tracking systems through the data analytics gather from the central banking system, using the blockchain as a ledger (exactly as blockchain was intended) of all transactions to track all purchases by companies or people, from utilities to medical history.  The cryptocurrencies and associated &#8216;wallets&#8217; connected to the blockchain were only the attempt to drag people into the adoption of the system because your allocation of UBI (universal basic income) will probably be tasks to complete and not numerical amounts and you will simply have digits assigned to you and your tasks will be tagged to your digits, your account.  If you don&#8217;t complete your tasks, you won&#8217;t get your delivery of food, or heat or any other life-supporting necessity that is all on centralized control.</p><p>(low-level)  With enough computational power (and as we have seen, necessary adoption of the system else it is too costly) an AI can track all transactions on a ledger. (This is not unlike a financial department in a corporation for which every operational decision could be mapped through its cash flows into and out of the business).  Even without physically tracking you, with your purchase details, an AI can create an extremely accurate picture of your habits, hobbies, beliefs, skillsets, geographic location, nearly all details of your life.  <strong>This has been available for years</strong>.  The addition of your social media enabled the mapping of your social circles, travel habits, actual physical locations and, actually, a credit score that you probably already have assigned which will determine how likely you are to go along with the crowd during a system change.  These details, that people have willingly provided, have also laid the groundwork for your usefulness in terms of productive capacity and skillsets for the labor tasks that you would be required to complete.</p><p>Further, current implementation of the centralization of the populace into the 15-minute smart cities is required for two reasons.  First, the cost aspect of the infrastructure can be localized and thus minimized.  Second, not unlike &#8216;The Hunger Games&#8217;, the tasks necessary for production can be localized.  Each skillset will be relocated to the area that requires that skillset.  If you are unfamiliar with the Chinese model, many of the massive factories that were built by the west in China also included housing right there on the complex.  <strong>People wakeup and simply walk to the factory lines</strong>.  Example, if you understand water systems, you will live next to the treatment center, if you understand electricity, you will live next to sections of the grid or the production process. Third, the resource usage of the people will be minimized.  You will simply be allocated your bare minimal, necessary for living resources of utilities and food.  If you do not comply you will be refused resources or removed.  </p><p>This operational structure is complex and humans simply cant achieve the required  analysis and tracking to successfully implement it, as communism has shown.  However, the belief is that with the assistance of AI, the grid of 5G towers and the LED street lighting that can map physical environments the process is possible within the confines where the infrastructure exists. </p><p>The only thing that is missing is the control of individual finances, the monetary system, because it removes choice all at once and also introduces a method from which an enforcement arm can be derived.  The system that was devised was a ledger system to which all individuals are attached so that all requirements of resources can easily be tracked and analyzed by an AI system and your tasks and respective allocations can be tracked and analyzed by an AI system and any manipulation of the ledger would be nearly impossible, thus eliminating the underground economy to skirt the system.  Example, covid cards and the forgeries of these cards would not have been possible on a ledger system.  As already hinted at, the ledger system is, simply, an accounting system that includes digital encryption and tamper-proof elements.  The addition of the &#8216;coins&#8217; or cryptocurrencies that went along with this ledger was the attempt to offer benefits to the system (much like credit card technology) in order to influence adoption of the technology.  </p><p>[<em>again</em>, <em>due to the issues of cost of infrastructure and computing power</em>, <em>if you put your machine on the system, then you could earn small portions of the coin due to your machines assistance in the computation of the algorithms</em>]   </p><p>As has been seen over the past decades since the inception of bitcoin, there has been little to no mass adoption of the concept and any investment has come from the large money private equity firms and other investment banking institutions.  The only thing that we really have seen in the cryptocurrency space is the development of hundreds of these blockchains and corresponding cryptocurrencies with the only real change in the invested monies coming closely correlated with the pumping of debt into the economy by the government (intentionally hoping a flow and adoption into cryptos?).  The cost is simply too great &#8230; no product like this can remain unless someone is subsidizing.  There is this need to have the people, due to the infrastructural requirements commit to their own serfdom in a techno-communist state.</p><p>One big step toward another attempt at adoption &#8230;  The Vatican has thrown its two cents in on the topics.  The Vatican has said that it will begin installing bitcoin mining equipment in every church and encouraging a digital collection plate to collect bitcoin donations via QR codes for those offering their tithe to the church.  The Vatican, has billions of followers, owns millions of acres of lands and has presence across countries throughout the world &#8230; it has also been headed by a marxist-communist since the <s>removal</s> stepping-down of the last head of the church.  I am sure the church only wants to offer another option to &#8216;pay&#8217; and has nothing to do with attempting to get a billion people to adopt the system.</p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>    </p><p>    </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[End of Empire]]></title><description><![CDATA[People, Payments, Labor, Knowledge and Skills.... part three]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/end-of-empire-6e1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/end-of-empire-6e1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 10 Sep 2023 21:00:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/13bffcb5-8077-4aca-9d20-34bbc50dabb8_608x292.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Socio-Economic&#8230;Labor</p><p>One can hardly address a decline of empire without taking into consideration those that are both most impacted and, factually, those that brought it about&#8230; the people.  I would begin by offering the Ben Franklin credited quote, &#8220;A Republic, if you can keep it.&#8221;  I am hoping that this will be familiar to most, but given the <s>indoctrination</s> education system that was brought about by the government takeover of education via the creation of the Department of Education and all facets that contributed to the impossibility of education being localized as opposed to governmentalized, I am doubtful that many would even know who Ben Franklin is these days.  And if anyone did, they would probably have all kinds of prepared remarks that have been pounded into their heads via a cadre of purple-haired-marxist bent &#8216;educators&#8217; who are fortunate they &#8216;teach&#8217; younger since it is unlikely there is anyone else they could find against whom they could be considered smarter.</p><p>This is, of course, a barb at the current course of those millennial and zoomer, which, one should consider it the prominent current teacher-student paradigm. (this alone should give pause)  Now given I have said my piece against the marxist bent, I would also make it clear that I have no inclination toward the boomers and their unquestioning daftness to anything the government spewed as truth.  The naivete, gullibility and bribability of the boomer class set the foundation for and has walked us right into our technocratic system, most predominantly exemplified in the creation of the HSA (Homeland Security Agency), its TSA (Transportation Security Admin), enabled by the Patriot Act and juiced up by the NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act).  I could also probably mention spying, recording, monitoring, tracking, continued violations of the Amendments and so on,   but I am getting a bit ahead of myself, however, this is definitely the environment within which we are considering our financial and economic situation and the influence of state enterprises can not be understated.</p><p>[<em>Because our perceptions create our reality and our filters for our experiences &#8230; </em></p><p><em>I think the X&#8217;ers have a unique perspective and if I were to be more definitive, the gen Y segment which is so rarely mentioned as it isn&#8217;t technically a generational segment by birth but by experiences.  Gen Y arose in marketing circles, but only briefly when its size within gen X was significantly smaller than the boomers and was then skipped over for the millennials.  Gen Y was the five year or so segment at the tail-end of the gen X classification, the very late 70&#8217;s births to very early 80&#8217;s births.  This segment had the crossover experiences of the old world into the new world, from methods of education, technology, scientific discovery and even child care.  This segment had the interesting experiences of having to learn of both worlds simply due to the fact that this period is the initiatory rollout of all the technology we have today.  </em></p><p><em>From the ending of 8-tracks and laser discs and rotary phones (for which you only had to dial the last four numbers in a small town to make a call) through to the first answering machines, cassettes, VHS, CDs, DVDs, Blu-Ray, 8-bit Pong, Atari, Sega, Nintendo, Play Station, X360, Commodore, Apple IIe, Walkman, Boom-Boxes, Zune, Ipod, Nokia brick phones to the first camera phones and eventual &#8216;smart phones&#8217;,  carburetors and stick-shifts to fuel-injection and automatics,  dial-up internet and AOL to broad-band and fiber optics&#8230; </em></p><p><em>&#8230;calculus with paper and pencil and no calculators to eventually the first graphing calculators, writing classes and typing classes and even computer classes&#8230;</em></p><p><em>&#8230;latch-key raised, leaving notes on after-school activities for when parents arrived home from work and knowing to come home when street lights came on, and yet with all the independent experiences and decision making development, still having to be the observer with the adults (speak when spoken to and don&#8217;t rock the boat). The direct affect, a generational segment heavily influenced by direct peers and discussions with peers.  This, of course, could lead to ridicule, arguments, fights, popularity siding and a requirement to put-up, shut-up or avoid altogether (not much changes here but for the amplification due to technology)&#8230;</em></p><p><em>&#8230;for many, an empirically based generational segment, making silent but actioned decisions while understanding how to stay under-the-radar by appearing to get along</em>.  <em>I have been extremely curious as to how this specific segment has faired these past few years.  While long-winded this is where I came from and I don&#8217;t much care if you agree with my assessment or not</em>. ] </p><p>When a company decides to start-up or expand operations, a strategic evaluation of a selection of geographic locations should be one of the first things considered.  Many of the corresponding reasons for this are obvious, ease of supply via transportation systems, type of product and related target market, operational support infrastructure such as internet capabilities, electrical needs, plumbing systems and so on &#8230; but one of the essential pieces that is often only thought of on a high-level, which is wholly inadequate, is labor and their related needs and expectations.</p><p>Too often a business believes that if it is near an urban area there are people to fill positions.  But labor is finite.  The more selectivity in skillset for a given position, the more finite the available labor pool.  The more finite the available labor pool, the more competition for available labor via compensation, work type, geographic location relative to the labor, leisure offerings desired by the labor within the geographic location, general affordability of lifestyle and housing within the geographic location and any other factors relative to the desires of the labor.    </p><p>Obviously, the weight given to any of these considerations is relative to the position. I will not say any position is key or more important, after all, if a position wasn&#8217;t important to the total operations the position wouldn&#8217;t exist.  A company couldn&#8217;t run a manufacturing line without some workers and maintenance on the line, even with the existence of robotics.  A company also would have issues operating if no one was overseeing supply lines and logistics or payment systems and financing.  What is key is that certain positions do require unique and rarer skillsets than other positions.  </p><p>If there is too much competition for various skillsets within a company&#8217;s geographic area, a company has few choices which will impact our socio-economic environment in our near future.  </p><p>-Pay significantly more for a skillset &#8230; this, however, creates an environment of poaching and may create a wage war.  Most companies do not want to participate in an environment of poaching.  As a consideration this may or may not attract more labor with a given skill set to the area.  Is it worth it?</p><p>-Simply jump to Recruiting from another geographic area and risk the investment in all costs if the recruit finds the geographic locations doesn&#8217;t meet expectations. (no, I probably wouldn&#8217;t sign a time frame clause if being recruited &#8230; the recruit would have more bargaining power)</p><p>-See if there is a technological replacement or assistance application that could be used to increase the capability of another position who doesn&#8217;t yet have the skillset but could attain it.    </p><p>-Pay for the direct training for a current or new individual to attain the required skillset.</p><p>Skillsets are probably the most easily identifiable in the demand for a company&#8217;s workforce and are generally associated with particular areas of study or training and generally the higher levels of the management hierarchy and are known to have gradually become more of an issue for companies as educational programs have declined.  These skillsets are typically knowledge based and applicably demonstrated in the real world.  </p><p>Blue collar&#8230; welders, electricians, plumbers, fisherman, construction, salons, spas etc&#8230;  </p><p>White collar&#8230; chemists, engineers, accountants, analysts, primarily math, stats or science based activities&#8230;</p><p>But what happens when a company begins to also run into issues at the entry-level positions, upon which the foundational structure is built to generate sales?</p><p>&#8216;Graduates&#8217; of high school &#8216;education&#8217; over the past decades have continually declined in basic skills such as reading, writing and even the most basic arithmetic.  Over the past few years, numerous statistical reports and memes that are sad but true, emphasize the inability for any level of mathematics, even the ability to make change, grade school level literacy and now little awareness of anything outside a social indoctrination agenda.  Perhaps you have seen some vids asking current college students to identify locations on a map and they cant even find Canada?</p><p>We have now reached the point that even those that have gone into &#8216;higher education&#8217; are nearly useless as an employee as there is no math, stats or science based graduates.  If one might be thinking business, those that go into business go into general business, marketing or human resources but cant actually contribute any math or statistical analysis to assess value generation or even tell you where to find a state&#8217;s employments laws or give you any skillset or knowledge that you couldn&#8217;t read for yourself in an introductory book.   And this is the &#8216;higher-learned&#8217;.  </p><p>If one considers how a workforce is typified in an economy, management has been typified as those with the longest amount of time in a workforce and age decreases proportionately down to the entry-level positions &#8230; ( I wont get into how ludicrous this is ).  This means that the new participates will set the foundation for the front line of operations and carry out the strategic endeavors of those in the higher levels of the hierarchy.  As the boomers are sort of tailing out of the workforce and the first segment of the X&#8217;ers are retiring and considering retirement, the fill-in has been done so by the millennials and now the very oldest zoomers.</p><p>I distinctly recall the numerous complaints the boomers had about the X&#8217;ers, but all-in-all the economy and operations running smoothly was not a concern.  Going forward, within the next few years, even if the US dollar somehow managed to withstand the onslaught from within and without, I have serious doubts about the effective and efficient capabilities of the US as a producer of any products or services.  As the &#8216;educational&#8217; system has dumbed down the student and correspondingly had to dumb down the curriculum in an awful loop, so to, in order to make money, have the higher learning institutions that have historically honed a discipline begun to accept everyone that can write their name on an application and graduate those that manage to simply show up for class.</p><p>As our US economy has been transformed to a consumer based and government employer based economy ( by design?), this has only created trillions of dollars of student loans that could never be paid back because the jobs aren&#8217;t there to repay them and the chosen fields didn&#8217;t included any skillset development for jobs that could afford to repay the loans in the first place.  This is a bad situation that has only been made worse by the openly Anti-American and .01% benefiting H1B visa laws that have been passed by bribed &#8216;representatives&#8217; that provide us the &#8216;bread and circuses&#8217; with which pacification occurs.</p><p>So where does this leave the very near future&#8230; well, we have been told many times over and it has actually been exemplified in Europe and this entire Empire in Decline has been a long range planning of, and continual minor cycles of, the Hegelian Dialectic method - problem, reaction, solution.</p><p>at this point it is probably TL;DR for most.. so I will close with this</p><p>to destroy a country, enslave its populace and maintain control&#8230;</p><p>-strip all manufacturing jobs that could support a middle class and single job homes in which the children could be care for by a family unit.  (note what happened in China with the introduction of manufacturing &#8230; a MIDDLE CLASS with money)</p><p>-begin destroying the family unit through attacks and propagandists of feminist doctrine under the guise of being pro-woman &#8230; (I believe a woman can choose to work or not, but dont attack someone for their choice)</p><p>-inflate the currency through continual deficit spending and government growth further destroying the ability of a single earner wage affording a family and forcing two income homes to just get by</p><p>-growth in government provides the basis for a surveillance and jackboot state for which a use will be made and taxpayer dollars will continue to fuel bailouts for the .01%, those in government will get rich, pork projects will fuel a parasitic elite for which it is necessary to create a serf class</p><p>-create a government education system that doesnt teach anything but propagandism of the state and undoes the final fibers of the family unit in favor of the declarations of the state</p><p>-propagandize the need to get a higher-education in a &#8216;non-profit&#8217; institution of higher learning that has billions of dollars in &#8216;endowments&#8217;, while the jobs requiring higher education are moved overseas or filled with foreign America hating workers that work for cheap and on government subsidies&#8230; all the while government guarantees of all loans toward tuition create a situation for which banks bear no risk or responsibility and predatorily create loans as assets for which a permanent debt slave is created and never ending banking derivatives are sold.</p><p>-as the guarantee of loans ensures repayment, any and all that can sign on a line are given loans for degrees created without any merit or basis as an actual discipline, but acts as a perfect enticement to get all participants in the program to have to include further propagadist coursework that further changes the social dynamic, engineering the exact serf state that was desired decades ago.</p><p>-with a generation of debt slaves and the nearly complete destruction of the family unit and the middle class continue the demoralization by attacking the foundational institutions and beliefs that made the creation of the greatest nation and most unique attempt at a nation possible, rewrite or erase all historically significant events and spend into oblivion on projects to create a technocratic-fascist-authoritarian state through the use of continual data gathering in every aspect of the debt slave&#8217;s life</p><p>-finally, when no more spending or siphoning off of  a nation&#8217;s wealth can be done and the currency system is depleted, shift everyone into a digital system of CBDCs (backed by the direct productivity of the serf) from which every price of every item can be controlled, every payment to every serf can be controlled, every item purchased can be controlled, every item every serf possesses can be rented back to him or her, and every task can be directly delegated to be completed </p><p>FIN</p><p></p><p>- </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p>  </p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[End of Empire]]></title><description><![CDATA[We are all Nero now ... part two]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/end-of-empire</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/end-of-empire</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 02 Sep 2023 19:30:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e9f94ce4-451e-4a56-b927-69b478c4df1e_1040x520.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BRICS</p><p>Brazil &#8211; Russia &#8211; India &#8211; China &#8211; South Africa</p><p>There has been more discussion about BRICS in the past few weeks than in perhaps the entire fifteen or so years since it first came into existence, at least in the media.&nbsp; The reason for the uptick in references to the coalition was that it recently had a BRICS Summit in Johannesburg late August.&nbsp; Now if you read western media, these propagandists of the western financial control systems and governments (name a three letter or intelligence agency) would have you believe it is an informal grouping of the&nbsp; &#8216;other&#8217; (meaning non-EU, UK, USA controlled) world economies.&nbsp; They would have you believe that this group wont change US dollar dominance in US trade.&nbsp; They would have you believe that these countries are lone representatives of an agenda to pursue alternative means of trade outside the control of the west and that these countries will have no impact&#8230;&nbsp; I think they are wrong.</p><p>Unfortunately, in today&#8217;s age of every asshole having an opinion (including me) and every asshole (especially in finance and economics) generally being wrong, ill-informed, and considerably vested in the fact that the US people believe the US system is fine, all that comes out is confusion and contradictory points &#8211; which may be exactly what any control system may want, after all this overload would simply cause most to shut down and ignore any of this information.&nbsp; There are a few key points in the economic policies of these countries that would catalyze a US dollar decline and a few key points in the world of finance that hinder further BRICS development.&nbsp; For an Empire in Decline and under going a &#8216;controlled&#8217; demolition from within, this could just topple the entire &#8216;controlled&#8217; aspect and send us (worst case) into mad max or best case third-world styled feudalism.</p><p>Beginning with a bit on BRICS.&nbsp; Yes, it started with the five primary nations.&nbsp; The 2022 GDP for those five countries was approximately $26 Trillion.&nbsp; The world GDP was around $110 Trillion.</p><p>&#8230; (yes I know GDP is an interesting calculation filled with pitfalls but not GDP attempts to measure &#8216;consumption&#8217; or purchases of new items, new creation, new service.&nbsp; This includes, public and private, government, investments, and net foreign trade which is the exports minus the imports.&nbsp; Examples: The US is a consumer economy, a nice way of saying we don&#8217;t have any production infrastructure.&nbsp; Consumer spending such as food purchases, dog grooming or accounting services all contribute.&nbsp; Government spending contributes, things like infrastructure investment, and HERE IS THE KICKER &#8230; PAYROLL, also contributes and is around 11% of GDP in the US.&nbsp; Businesses also purchase items, and also contribute the same way people do, but the largest portion of US GDP at 20% is the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate industries&#8230; now ponder this because this is the banking and financial interests which is primarily paper contracts and no real goods.&nbsp; The US GDP in 2022 was around $25 Trillion.).</p><p>&nbsp;The latest Summit invited six new countries and had 22 formal applications for admittance.&nbsp; The six new countries are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudia Arabia and the U.A.E. (United Arab Emirates).&nbsp; The coalition now boasts some hefty economic statistics.&nbsp; These additions bring the BRICS contribution to world GDP to around 36%-40%, while the G7 is around 30%, in addition, the BRICS coalition comprises of 47% of the world population and 16% of world trade.  Diving into these countries share of global commodities production and consumption of the original five nations we see a growing controlling interest in numerous necessary commodities.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg" width="1273" height="808" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:808,&quot;width&quot;:1273,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:135428,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E_WM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08187b0c-7dd2-4cab-8be0-e9ee47cd9dd7_1273x808.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><em>(Source) ABN.AMRO </em></p><p><em>November 2019 Group Economics Research Presenation (original BRICS nations)</em></p><p><em><a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/1u811bvgvthc/1GAIkkabVQ7b4kTgkRMsLq/7621c99590b04094b9b84d232362f984/BRICS-Emerging_Commodity_Coalition_11-2019_def.pdf">https://assets.ctfassets.net/1u811bvgvthc/1GAIkkabVQ7b4kTgkRMsLq/7621c99590b04094b9b84d232362f984/BRICS-Emerging_Commodity_Coalition_11-2019_def.pdf</a></em></p><p>New additions, Saudi Arabia, Iran, U.A.E, inclusive of Russia, control around 53% of the world oil supply.  Iran has the world&#8217;s largest zinc reserve and second largest copper reserve.  China is the largest consumer of most products on the planet &#8230; 23% of world agricultural products, 50% of industrial metals and base metals.  India is moving to be the largest importer of oil.  Brazil is a bread basket of the world.</p><p>You might be thinking&#8230; this is fine and dandy but why do I care?  </p><p>All this trade potential.  All these resources.  All this productive potential (and in the case of China, capacity&#8230; fulfilling the need for which they seek).  All this potential for infrastructure development.</p><p>China needs agricultural goods and metals to smelt, manufacturing capacity to fill&#8230;.India has its own agriculture, but need energy and infrastructure development and therefore investment&#8230;Brazil and Argentina have many metals and agriculture but need mining investment and manufacturing capacity&#8230;South Africa has numerous metals, but lacks infrastructure and development&#8230;Iran is virtually untapped in energy and metals&#8230;Saudi Arabia/U.A.E. have barrels of oil and energy and significant investment capability&#8230;Russia controls significant resources in all areas of metals, agriculture, energy&#8230; These countries could simply create a vast trade network to meet each other&#8217;s needs because one or another in this group does fill the needs of another.  BUT &#8230; all trade has been done in western currencies&#8230; primarily US dollars.</p><p>This is the second time I have mentioned this&#8230; its important to understand how currency can control countries.  Perhaps you heard media mention western governments were going to sanction Russia, or how they sanction Iran?  This is, essentially, controlling access to the monetary infrastructure that controls inter-country financial transactions throughout the globe.  Much the same as how you transfer funds from one bank to another, or pay for a purchase with a credit card&#8230; one bank is contacted by another and funds are eventually transferred (time for clearance varies)&#8230; this occurs across borders and between governments.  However, while similar to your credit card terminals and the computer network infrastructure that supports the transaction, security and communications between your bank and the store&#8217;s bank,  this network is international and also involves foreign exchange rates.  </p><p>Since this infrastructure is very costly but beneficial to the elements of control&#8230; and since western nations implemented their central banking system throughout much of the countries of the world (which are in almost all cases majority private owned) the western banking system developed the transactional system which countries use and paid for it (but not with their own money)&#8230; This system is, of course, a result of the continued implementation of colonialism under the guise of &#8216;beneficial globalism&#8217;.  </p><p>Now, I want to point out that this global trade isnt your standard economic theory of absolute and relative advantages of production and concentrating on those areas for which you have maximum efficiencies because trade can then benefit those involved.  This globalism isnt global trade, it is manipulation, control and theft.  It is the usage of the developed financial system as a weapon to create debtor nations and then claim their resources on the cheap or as a result of &#8216;default&#8217;.  </p><p>How does this work?  Well&#8230; very short and simplistic&#8230; if your currency is demand, it is worth more relative to a currency that isnt in demand.  As an example&#8230; a company in the US is purchasing goods from a company in Sweden.  The companies make an agreement to a specific amount in a currency, in this case Swedish Krone.  This means the US company needs to go out and exchange dollars for krone (which is essentially purchasing krone with dollars) and then pay for the goods from the Swedish company. This transaction has created a demand for Swedish krone relative to the dollar.  Now if this is expanded for all global transactions, since most are done in US dollars, this means countries all need to purchase or keep US dollars on hand for trade.  This means there is significant demand for dollars, the dollar has &#8216;strength&#8217; to purchase because it is needed everywhere and the dollars can actually be acquired by purchasing US Treasuries &#8230; buying our debt &#8230;allowing for deficit spending &#8230; and absorbing all our inflation&#8230; but I get ahead of myself.</p><p>For countries that have been under European colonialism&#8230; East India Company and the likes&#8230;  it would evolve from a mercantilism style system.  This system has involved several levels of diplomacy and influence and so I will attempt a simple view.</p><p>Take a look at France and Niger - industrial and governmental interests as opposed to the people &#8230; although the people benefit (in France) probably more than they understand.  Say France enters into Niger wanting to trade.  France has more advanced infrastructure and many trade partners and utilizes the Euro which is on par with the dollar. France has finished goods which are worth more than commodities and are appealing to those with the ability to purchase.  Niger doesnt have as many trade partners, trades primarily commodities as opposed to finished goods and therefore doesnt have as much demand for their currency (West African Franc&#8230;French backed - ahaha .. you cant make this up) and, in general, has fewer people that hold enough W.African Francs to purchase French goods in Euros.  </p><p>Niger has resources that France wants but France doesnt want to pay market rates for the resources&#8230;afterall Niger may not have the infrastructure for the development of these resources and therefore doesnt have the access to the financial markets to sell these resources.  Because France would benefit from a pro-French government, which would sell the rights to said resources and all permits to said development of said resources and because the Euro is significantly more demand and has more strength than the West African Franc, it is inexpensive to install a puppet government, pay cheaper wages for labor and then make off with a resource at well below the cost of the actual resource on the western markets.  But then&#8230; Niger eventually catches on, overthrows the puppet, kicks the French out and demands they control their own resources&#8230;  Opps.  </p><p>France needs this commodity at the cheap to support their crony commie government else the people would have to pay real rates (in this case for energy) and would probably do more than march in the street and light cars on fire.  Panic&#8230;  Of course, France could offer a &#8216;loan&#8217; for infrastructure that must be repaid in Euros&#8230; after the bribery and corruption takes its chunk and nothing is actually built that enables the government to collect taxes to repay said loan (remind anyone of the US and its corrupt government?) &#8230; the West African Franc is probably worth even less relative to the Euro.  The Niger government cant exchange enough W.A Francs for Euros to meet their loan payments and then has to default while France gets claim to something&#8230; oh&#8230;predatory lending.</p><p>This is just a story.  Just a look at an example of monetary weaponization and in no way reflects real events to any detail despite the fact numerous African countries are rising up against France currently.  </p><p>Unfortunately, even base commodities development, mining or growth now requires investment and advances in technology to come anywhere close to the efficiencies necessary for competing on trade markets.  Investment may even be needed that enable the actual development of the commodities&#8230; roads, electricity, plumbing, skilled labor&#8230; then machinery, concrete and construction, trucking and logistics, repairs and maintenance, business admin for contracts, accounting and so on&#8230;  This all takes money up front as people wont dedicate their time and skills for future payments if they arent sure they will be paid or have other options that do pay for their skills.  If some of these countries are poorer and have fewer goods, and their currencies wont purchase items on the larger market, the only investment comes from other countries &#8230; which produces capital outflows and devalues the countries currency (which is why the West African Franc is supported by France - for stability).  Turkey is an example of this condition.  Its a vicious cycle from which it is difficult to break away, especially if money and trade is controlled entirely by western currencies.</p><p>Well&#8230; now you have countries like the BRICS.  They are all stable in their own right.  Loaded with commodities.  Industrialized.  Developed.  Competitors for trade on the global stage&#8230; in fact they produce/provide a significant proportion of real commodities, whereas, the western nations primarily produce the paper money and contracts because the western nations and created the process for payments and banking and financial markets.  These BRICS nations are not minor economies and do not have to be reliant upon outside financing for projects or development.    However &#8230; they all must still must trade in US dollars and are hence beholden to the system and any weaponization that comes with it.  These BRICS nations have also finally pieced together the fact that they are getting fiat money for real goods and essentially forced to use the fiat to simply buy more western government debt as they grow because any products (especially oil) that are purchased are done so in dollars.  This simply perpetuates the system in which commodities and labor are done by these BRICS nations while the western nations print money from nothing.  Upon realization&#8230; what would you do?</p><p>First thing I would do is develop the technology and necessary infrastructure for banking transactions between countries.  After 15 years, I am quite sure this is enabled and  we have seen these countries already making trades in currencies other than the dollar.  </p><p>Second I would develop my own financial markets which equates to creating a relative measure by which value of exchange for goods of different types are measured, not a currency per se&#8230; and this is where I believe western pundits are getting it wrong&#8230;  the BRICS system may develop a unit of measure, just like per dollar is a unit of measure.  Much how we reference dollars per barrel of oil&#8230; the BRICS nations will reference ounces of gold per barrels of oil.  They may call an ounce a BRIC or some name 9as Jim Rickards points out) but the relationship is key.  A dollar per barrel may be today&#8217;s price, but tomorrow (due to inflation) will be two dollars per barrel, however an ounce to a barrel today will be an ounce to a barrel tomorrow unless either more gold is discovered or more oil is discovered.  The difference is real assets to something created out of thin air.  In fact, if you were trading oil for corn, it may be the measure of gold ounces to a bushel of corn and a gold ounce to a barrel of oil to determine the corn to oil ratio.  Ideally this would be irrespective of the currencies and could be written up as receipts for trade which could again be traded &#8230; yes counterfeit receipts would be an issue but &#8212;- <strong>this is what distributed ledgers could be used to eliminate</strong>.</p><p>Third, because all financial transactions and trade are built on trust of completion and payment the system needs an arbiter country to facilitate said market with a system of laws, contracts and property rights that are trusted by all.  I actually think that Japan will fill this role to the chagrin of China.  Japan is a saver nation with poor central bank policies due to western influence on their system.  Japan also still has, as far as I know, a reputation for integrity and business.  </p><p>&#8230;this point is actually why the western system has enjoyed such longevity&#8230; property rights, contracts and the ability to enforce it...</p><p>I believe that the BRICS are on this third step, which is why they are taking in members.  Whether it is Japan is just speculative.</p><p>So, what happens to the US dollar, the US and the western nations when all the commodities decide to trade amongst themselves and continue their shift away from the purchasing of US Treasuries?  Skyrocketing prices and societal collapse.  This is not hyperbole. </p><p>We are already seeing the impacts of never-ending government debt creation and the handing out of all this money &#8230; rising prices.  Rising prices means more items need to be financed.  Financing creates a larger supply of money. Which means prices increase more.. and so on.  Restrict the supply and we have a double whammy as we see in housing and auto.  The debt has become so expensive that it now is necessary to take out debt to pay the debt&#8230;</p><p>This dynamic is interesting on the whole, but if prices are rising here, it means that the world is no longer absorbing our inflation to the degree we are creating it. This alone means that we will continue to see rising prices, but given that we are also restricting energy production at home, this only increases production costs for everything across the board and now that the energy produces overseas are moving to the BRICS, we arent going to get it cheaper.  In fact, if the world begins to prefer other payment than dollars, the dollar loses strength and any commodities then become even more expensive.  </p><p>Even if the financial system wasnt in shambles, the world has tired of weaponized commodity systems to the point that they will attempt to interact and trade with those that they dont trust and may even have had wars with&#8230;</p><p>Socio-Economic and Labor Environment</p><p>&#8230;continued to part three.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Decline of Empire]]></title><description><![CDATA[We are all Nero Now... part one]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-empire</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-empire</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 29 Aug 2023 23:00:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ad14d79e-9dfe-4b5e-be31-c6d3f935135d_1200x964.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No&#8230; this doesnt have to be &#8216;conspiratorial&#8217;, although that word should conjure up an entirely new connotation now, it is simply an outcome of our environment and the behaviors shaped by that environment.  </p><p>Let&#8217;s begin with the financial and economic environment.  For decades financial experts predicted the collapse of the US system.  Many people are probably unaware that during the &#8216;70s the modern day prepper was actually started.  This event was, of course, the by-product of the elimination of the foreign trade gold standard and the OPEC dollar standard with the addition of the naive peanut farmer president for good measure.  </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Many thought the disassociation of the dollar to gold would bring about its demise, however (oversimplified), the oil-linkage actually swapped out the dollar as a currency (as it was linked to gold) and actually set it up as a commodity with a supply and demand directly linked to the energy needs of foreign countries that purchased oil from the ME gulf states.  In fact, the dollar would become the &#8216;gatekeeper&#8217; for the purchase of energy and eventually for the majority of trade between nations in the world.  </p><p>During this period, preppers bought hobby farms and ammo for anticipated collapse of the US economy, only much about the understanding of human behavior, economics and finance (fiscal/monetary policies) was misunderstood, then, as it is currently.   I tend to attribute the misunderstandings to a belief that any major changes to the current environment will result in catastrophe; inherent in most peoples&#8217; psyche and, unfortunately, the majority of people cant carry-forward the dynamics of a decision and the possible outcomes.</p><p>While, the <s>deliberate</s> coincidental result of the oil-linked dollar would be the decline of nearly all real-asset, productive capacity of the United States.  You see, even with a complete collapse of a country&#8217;s currency, as long as the people have productive capacity and real assets, the people can find a way to persist and, due to the fact that there are productive assets, a currency can be stabilized because those same productive assets can provide for both the country&#8217;s needs and export any excess for foreign trade.  The people can always find a way if they have the capability.   </p><p>The oversimplification of this cant be stressed enough, but essentially, the US was in a significantly different financial and economic position in the &#8216;70s then we see today.  Today, the people dont own the productive assets, the people arent nearly as skilled in productive activities and the people are not nearly as intelligent or resilient to adversity as those of decades past...  </p><p>[ <em>and no&#8230; having more technology doesnt make a society more intelligent. regurgitation of &#8216;accepted&#8217; answers with no ability to provide insight or real understanding is the hallmark of not only our education system, but most jobs/tasks as well</em> ]  </p><p>&#8230;this doesnt make them better people, afterall they gave us numerous assassinations of leaders, continued passage of laws restricting freedom and initiated the bailouts to eliminate risk to their money which should have resulted in the 1% becoming paupers&#8230; but in decades past, the skillsets were still available to persevere through that which we will see very shortly&#8230;and I mean very shortly.</p><p>The financial situation today is beyond dire as so many have pointed out.  Our society is entirely based upon credit, for both the individual and businesses.  This credit has been &#8216;cheap&#8217; for the past 15 years.  What I mean by cheap is that any interest rates tied to it have been very low relative to historic rates.  This meant that everyone was able to stretch their annual income and increase its purchasing power by the amount of credit for which they were qualified.  The credit was seen in auto purchases, home purchase, luxury items, vacations/travel/leisure and all purchases.  To meet the increase in demands, businesses would increase production and therefore jobs &#8230; an entire incremental expansion of the economy would be due to credit expansion.</p><p>Credit expansion creates an increase in the money supply&#8230; in short this allows everyone to compete, through payment, for available goods.  If there is a limited supply of goods, the prices will increase.  You might ask why we didnt see such an increase in prices over the past 15 years and that was due to the increasing dollars (as debt) spread to foreign countries thanks to the oil-linked dollar.  As a recent example, during cv-19 lockdowns, we saw the direct result of limited supplies of goods and lots of available dollars to purchase (think autos) as a dramatic increase in prices.  In the same vein, housing can be referenced as migration from state to state caused bidding wars, a declining supply of resales and increased prices paid resulting in higher than sustainable valuations &#8230; especially given current mortgage rates.  Credit expansion creates bubbles.</p><p>As a bubble peaks, the jobs that were created during the expansion are no longer necessary, any business expenditures that were made to accommodate expansion and any contracts signed with intent of meeting expansion are no longer needed (reference commercial real estate &#8230; this isnt just due to work-from-home).  Workers will be laid off, contracts will be broken or unfulfilled, excess expenditures may be dumped on the market as an attempt to gain anything from the no longer needed assets.  Over the past three years, if you have been paying attention, there have been record numbers of corporate bankruptcies and layoffs in the logistics, tech and finance industries.   </p><p>Current economic activity, or lack thereof in my opinion, may all come as a surprise, afterall, the stock markets seem to have steady-generally increasing days, any drops to red are nearly always recovered by closing bell or end of the week.  We are told GDP is projected to be 5% (nearly impossible in a developed economy) and that inflation is &#8216;going down&#8217; (because no one seems to understand the concept of Year-over-Year calculations) &#8230; all is well.  Only, GDP is measure in price and if price increases 20%, one can sell 16% fewer units and still end up with the same revenues relative to no changes, Year over Year measures, if positive, always indicate an increase albeit possibly at a decreasing rate and lately all economic data is undergoing significant negative revisions after official reporting is released.</p><p>The seeming contradictions should have people on edge.  The lack of productive assets, lack of production, rising debt, rising GDP, rising cost of living, and a rising stock market have always preceded a hyperinflationary event.  Combine this with the active attempts of govt to restrict energy production (a key to any and all productivity), rising interest rates and therefore rising costs to increase any capacity, rising costs of debt service (for variable rates not locked in) and to top it all off &#8230; labor strikes and wage increases to convince people to simply continue working and for them being able to get by with daily bills as labor strikes and frequency of strikes are the last indicator of an event.  Even if no other world events were occurring, it would be indicative of trouble&#8230; but other events are occurring.</p><p>War is inflationary.  Just a note.  Money is printed and only selected services are provided as the rest of the economy often stagnates to shift production into areas needed for war.  It also creates a significant expansion of debt.  </p><p>But this isnt the only thing to indicate trouble.  Currently, the world is in a financial battle for capital investments from foreign entities for each governments&#8217; debt.  In the US its Treasuries, in Germany the Bund, UK the Gilt and so on&#8230; but the basics are that all countries operate a deficit and require someone else to buy their debt.  Debt is sold in batches of a particular value with a time for repayment often inclusive of coupon payments to entice purchase.  (Fixed income can get complex so I am trying to keep it simple)  If all the debt is desired to be purchsed by various entities, the interst rate is lower and the coupon payment lower.  If no one wants the debt the interest rates can rise quite a bit and the cost of selling the debt may be more than some countries can afford.  High interest rates indicate a risky investment and a risky country.  The UK and the EU (basically Germany) are in a lot of trouble financially and Tom Luongo has a unique and useful take on the financial fight..  </p><p>People forget that a few months ago the UK Gilt market almost toppled, or that UBS had to absorb Credit Suisse (forced).  The current financial fight is for investment into the US, UK or the EU to keep these debt laden governments operating.  It could be argued that the UK and EU is being artificially held up by the European Central Bank and, oddly, actions of the US Treasury which actually counter actions by the FedReserve, but that isnt as important as simply noting that Europe is a paper prop, literally.  When printed money and debt is used to purchase other debt&#8230; its just swapping balances on a credit card, paying a higher rate.   All three, US, UK and EU are interlocked and yet each are trying to stay just one up on the other &#8230; a three legged stool, legs whittled to toothpicks.  Perhaps the best indication of this is China.</p><p>China has been in the news the past few months as its economy has locked up; although I would argue that China was never the robust economy that had been pushed by financial news pundits for years and years.  I generally equate China as a manufacturing plant with lots of productive capacity, much of which was actually packed up and transferred from the US or built by US/European companies.  Other countries, primarily western, utilize said productive capacity and as long as the western countries also bring the raw materials from other parts of the world, China will assemble/refine their products.  Of note, China doesnt really have a supply of raw materials for a billion people.  China has trouble feeding its billion people.  China&#8217;s economy has become inextricably linked to the west&#8217;s production needs and the earnings from it, the very money with which China pays other countries for the resources China needs.</p><p>Any factory that has its orders pulled, and will no longer be filling as many orders as it has historically, will have to result to layoffs and perhaps a reduction in operative capacity.  If the west&#8217;s economies are contracting, one would expect China to correspondingly contract and have to go searching for other countries to which its capacity can be sold, to be addressed next.  I tend to believe that the economy is contracting and the only reason statistics have indicated a &#8216;low&#8217; unemployment rate is due to the impact of several million workers, of prime earning age and socio-economic status, being removed from the workforce referenced by a significant increase in disabilities over the past two years.  A huge contributor to this study can be found by Ed Dowd.  But, regardless, a decrease in the need for products (and the people that may have purchased them) that China produces for the US, which I would classify as largely unnecessary ,  leaves China searching for alternative sources of commodities and productive needs.</p><p>BRICS</p><p>&#8230; to be continued in part two</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>  </p><p></p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Market Crashes ]]></title><description><![CDATA[What does it take, What are the payoffs, Does it happen this time?]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/market-crashes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/market-crashes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jun 2023 16:43:19 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was sent a social media vid recently of an interview, during which, the interviewee went on to &#8216;explain&#8217; that the market will be run up with the intention to crash it, &#8220;This is what they are planning to do.&#8221;</p><p>These days we find ourselves with far too many experts&#8230; academic experts to armchair experts and with the combination of technologically driven reach and far too much time on the hands of the people, a driven need to consume media.  The driven need (addiction?) to consume media pushes people into any &#8216;experts&#8217; that have agreeable thoughts and presentation.  The number of viewers drives of the ego of the &#8216;experts&#8217; and reinforces the thought that their expertise must be just that&#8230; expertise and inherently an understanding of the topic.  Where does this expertise come from?  </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Well, most often, it is regurgitated from others&#8217; videos, articles, books and all media both modern and historic.  The issue with this is the same that we say from &#8216;experts&#8217; the past few years&#8230; these &#8216;sources&#8217; are often just citing, again, others&#8217; media, and there is this web of citation and all the information ends up being the same, driven to meet an agenda of one side or the other without anyone ever getting much of an understanding of why, how, who&#8230;. just a statement of, this was what happened in the past and it looks like it is happening now.</p><p>What we are seeing now with pundits, economists, armchair investors and anyone honestly that has even a minimal financial vocabulary is a push to &#8216;inform&#8217;, not based on actual understandings of economics but cherry-picked statements that will be agreeable to an audience, fill some coffers and, at the same time, make the audience believe they follow someone that has answers.  Since fields of study have their own vernacular, the financial vocabulary helps to sound legit, citations and historical data helps to look legit and if you say what your audience wants to hear then you are golden, no pun intended.</p><p>If you cant tell, this type of garbage irks me to no end and is so prevalent that I am often irked after reading new media &#8216;sources&#8217; that I have not yet encountered.  I do try to give every media producer several looks prior to deciding whether they are full of it or not&#8230; but I digress to the interviewee and the clear lack of actual knowledge or reasoning of market crashes and impetus.</p><p>Lets get into market crashes.</p><p>Quick &amp; Dirty </p><p>First :: stock values are derived from earnings and demand for the stock.  Typically this would be seen as the values of potential future earnings and hence the economic outlook, both for the company and for the economy as a whole.  What you pay for a stock is supposed to reflect some combination of earnings and demand and are &#8216;market values&#8217;.  We could get into discounted cash flows and risk, but the complexity and alternative investment issues, I do not believe, are necessary to cover for this synopsis.</p><p>Second :: asset valuations are based on these &#8216;market values&#8217;, but as you may consider, even if there is no demand for a share, it is still worth its share of earnings and hence will never be worth nothing if the earnings are positive.  If we were to look at the earnings and attempt to value future earnings (dubious and argumentative but generalize) we would see that most of the stocks on the market are already multiples overvalued to earnings.  This suggests there is a significant demand, and therefore, behavioral component to these &#8216;market values&#8217;.</p><p>Third :: the demand component.  buy high and sell low&#8230; (yup&#8230; this is typically what happens in most transactions), FOMO, panic, margin calls, BTFD (buy the dip), dont fight the FED&#8230; financial nomenclature for the masses.  Demand, not only implies desire, but ABILITY to exact a transaction, but what happens if there is no one to meet these requirements?</p><p>For simplicity, we will divide investors into big controllers (Black Rock, State Street, robber barons), big money (pensions, hedge funds, other investment banks, some family firms, governments), main street (day traders, small firms and general public with an app).</p><p>When the 1929 crash occurred, there were numerous events that lead up to and led to the crash, but essentially, as main street piled in the big controllers sold into the rising valuations and demand frenzy.  When the big controllers pulled out, the market ran out of demand because main street was actually borrowing money on real assets and the stocks they purchased to fund further purchases.  In order to meet liquidity and because the money spigot was turned off, selling began and the valuations dropped until anyone from main street that was in the market had sold everything&#8230; at massive losses.  Because the big controllers were able to offload stocks to cash they were then able to buy up the market for fractions of initial holdings.  We could dive into the events of 1929, but all that is needed to understand, for now, is that generalized events of a crash follow this pattern.  The big controllers knew that demand was being fueled by debt that couldnt be sustained, but they also knew that there was ample demand to cover all of their holdings.  Demand and ability.</p><p>Now I am not an encyclopedic source on all the crashes that have ever happened, but I know, absolutely, two things are needed, demand and ability to drive a valuation upward with a final, predictable (possibly sudden) stoppage to the ability and therefore a shutdown of demand. If we were to look deeper into events that caused crashes, 9/11 and CV19, we would see similarities in the patterns, but also differences.  Some entities made large swaths of money after 9/11 because they went to large cash holdings shortly before the event and CV19 obviously created a situation to buy up additional ownership more cheaply, and thus more control, for a small number of informed entities, but these economic environmental factors dont offer signals for mass stock buy-ups or preparation for a foreseeable economic event driven by economic factors.  These are not necessarily a crash of the same type as 1929, unlike the DotCom bubble.</p><p>The DotCom bubble was another mania, fueled by, and crashed under, economically driven factors like that of 1929.  The internet was going to revolutionize business, streamline operations, reach multitudes more consumers and explode earnings.  Of course, like with many manias, few understand the operational necessities to realize any of these potentialities.  Significant advancements in payment systems, marketing to reach these consumers, adoption of the technology by consumers and even complimentary technologies to ease operations with newly introduced internet platforms were all necessary to take advantage of this new business channel but fell far short of expectations.  [Even today, business ops arent well beyond spreadsheets and significant manual processes, but I digress.]  </p><p>The mania that followed drove massive demand and those that understood the lacking supporting technologies and adoption necessary for the DotComs to be successful, could (and did) sell into the mania, but this time, the crash caught many big money and main street investors off guard while big controllers, again, sold into the rise.  While big controllers made out again, the big money was in trouble and was also selling to cover margins, liquidity requirements and to try to salvage some asset value due to the mania of selling by all the other main street and big money participants. (This is an important note because it is a key difference to 1929. main street still comprised an influential amount of investment and big money was now a key player that still was, generally, little wiser than main street.  key differences to what we see today in the market.) </p><p>You can see that big money was caught off-guard because it was Alan Greenspan that initiated the soft bailout under the guise of government assistance.  At the time, bailout was not a prevalent or &#8216;acceptable&#8217; term.  This event set-off an inflationary event in the money supply and correspondingly so in the asset valuations of stocks.  It was also probably one of the first major criminal thefts of the &#8216;elite&#8217; parasites over the general populace.</p><p>What actually occurred is that the big money firms that held investments for government had their asset valuations crash to such a degree that the millionaire class in government and in big money funds were going to lose that millionaire status.  Not wanting to lose their dollar value, a passage of a bill, funded by the taxpayers, would buy up all the losses and be the insurance payment for the &#8216;elite&#8217;, parasitic class to remain in their positions of power.  This was our first modern introduction to a massive induction of inflation into the economy and would now be the go-to playbook.</p><p>We would then see this again with the &#8216;helicopter Ben&#8217; bailout and TARP rescue funding facility that enacted the money printing schemes to &#8216;save the market&#8217; and &#8216;save the economy&#8217;.  But this time, because the bailout was accepted in the DotCom crash, the big money and big controllers didnt have to initiate a market mania to sell into or even worry about portfolio values.  The mania was initiated elsewhere to eliminate main street from holding assets altogether.  In fact, because of the government backdrop of a bailout, big money and big controllers, gave away money to main street (NINJA loans, ARMs&#8230;) to buy up assets that went on the books as loan assets at elevated valuations due to the demand for mortgages and the very low (artificially so) interest rates.  </p><p>Akin to the 1929 crash, with a mix of the DotCom crash, the ability of demand to pay would dry up.  Upon drying up, the market crashed, the banks took ownership of all the homes, main street lost all their wealth, but the government (taxpayers) refunded all the losses to the the banks in addition to giving them the assets in foreclosure.  Big money and big controllers would be able to buy up real assets with the insurance backing of the taxpayers who were the actual owners of the assets.  Main street paid thrice over, once for the loss of all the values of the stocks in their portfolios and then with the massive increase in debt through the bailout and finally with the massive increase in the inflation of the money supply. </p><p>Why is this important?  Because since this point and time we have had a continually and nearly exponential tracking of stock valuations with the exception of the blip in the 2007-2009 housing crisis.  This same bailout would be implemented on a larger scale for the housing crisis. Just take a gander at split adj valuations on the DOW</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg" width="1030" height="644" 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pXnB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f374f61-bc34-4e43-8c7b-5ddcc1d8b61f_1030x644.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg" width="1030" height="644" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:644,&quot;width&quot;:1030,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:267726,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g5c0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F803dc8fe-e1e2-4321-9d3b-9187fa8898c6_1030x644.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Much of the inflation that has been introduced into our money supply had been successfully hidden in the outsourcing of labor and production to countries that have significantly lower FX valuations to the US Dollar, but those that have been around and paying attention to pricing have still seen a considerable rise in prices of goods over the past 15 years.</p><p>So why bring all this up in a discussion of market crashes?</p><p>in order to set up a market crash as is proclaimed&#8230; one needs motivation&#8230;demand&#8230;ability.</p><p>This isnt to say that we couldnt see a drop of 20% to 40%&#8230; but is this really a crash?  If we know earnings are the key source to stock valuations, and future earning often fuel the demand component, would we be remiss to believe that a 20%-40% drop is really just an appropriate valuation?  That said, however, I still dont think this will happen. </p><p>A crash isnt needed or desired by big controllers, big money or even main street (pensions).  In addition, even if all of main street tried to sell, the total drop may be only 20%&#8230; I just dont think the influence is there in the market for main street holders (pensions exempted).  </p><p>Bigger questions?</p><p>ability/demand : who would big controllers, big money sell to in order to go to cash?  some have gone to cash, Buffett as an example.  but I believe Buffett went away from the US market or is searching elsewhere.  main street simply doesnt have the money to buy into a rising market that is still being fueled by big money  and big controllers.</p><p>motivation : what would the motivation be?  if the big controllers and big money control enough corporations to influence all government and corporate decisions, such as the woke social engineering experiment, does big controllers and big money need more ownership?</p><p>backing : we have already seen that the bailouts have been accepted and with this insurance a crash is not needed to ensure retention of asset values or assets by big money and big controllers</p><p>We now look at a market that is primarily controlled by big controllers and big money.  </p><p>In our current state of the market nearly everything is owned by the upper echelon, parasitic, &#8216;elite&#8217; classes and government officials.  The bailouts and money printing have now become perpetual.  The same inflationary bailouts that caused the prices of the stocks above to sky rocket has also caused the prices in the lives of the everyday main streeters to sky rocket as the money printing can no longer be offset by cheaper goods produced elsewhere.  The companies that comprise the indexes and valuations of investment portfolios have run on nearly free debt for 15 years and any artificial expansion that had resulted from the free debt (also extended to main street in the form of various types of credit) is now zombified and running off of this debt.  And now, to boot, the FED is bumping rates&#8230; and most likely will in June and July.   </p><p>...a crash?</p><p>We would need stock values to crater.  Who owns all the stocks?  big money and big controllers.  Does this suggest motivation to initiate a crash?  I dont think so.  </p><p>Who do they sell to?  at these prices is there demand/ability? does a reasonable investor believe these values are worth the share of future earnings?  for some yes (they still try to buy), but enough to sell into on a rising tide? Any that did sell began selling a few years ago.  If selling occurs as a mania, what&#8217;s the reaction? &#8230; print money to bailout.  Does this suggest a crash?  I dont think so.</p><p>The ownership is set.  The portfolios of the wealthy parasitic class is set.  The edicts are coming out&#8230; no, it probably wont crash.</p><p> A primary consideration would be the capital sources of investment in the markets, but with printed money bailing out the world (think UK bond crisis, Credit Suisse) how much investment will simply be papered over through fiat creation?  The peculiarity is that the rising rates, fueled with the inflation of money supply will simply supply&#8230; more money.</p><p>The most interesting thing to occur will be the bankrupting companies due to rising financing costs and rising production costs squeezing margins that are simply removed from the market indexes, all the while, the indexes barely blip in valuation, with other bankrupting companies selling additional offerings to fund losses and finding money available and thus holding valuations.  This will be the trend of our current crisis .. hyperinflation of any and all goods of any necessity and demand while a complete crash in everything that is superfluous to existence.  </p><p>This will result, not just from the money printing that has occurred, but also because those in power positions that have gone from $200k a year government jobs to millionaires, will not allow their stolen wealth to evaporate.  They do not understand that values are relative to spending power, and so big numbers are all that matter to them.  The commoditization is coming to the US shores and will further catalyze our steps into hyperinflation</p><p>If the stock prices above indicate anything &#8230; as a bailout and money printing is introduced, the markets go up, even while the economy teeters along.  </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Whispers to Frenzy]]></title><description><![CDATA[An opening to the predictable cycles of finance - government- money and collapse.]]></description><link>https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/whispers-to-frenzy</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://williamfbryant.substack.com/p/whispers-to-frenzy</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[William F Bryant MSc MBA CMA]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 29 Sep 2022 19:00:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2ad79a3d-e382-453a-b5b9-956ad1ef7509_2000x1500.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let us begin with an old adage, that I will attempt to recall from memory as a quickly paraphrased grouping of words, that of whispers &#8211; beliefs &#8211; opinions &#8211; truth.&nbsp; It&#8217;s a pathway to change, and one that, if completed, can end up dictating the very &#8216;normalcy&#8217; within which we find ourselves and accepting without question that this &#8216;normalcy&#8217; is the <em>correct</em> one.&nbsp; It is this pathway that media uses to work up a frenzy for a product, government uses to work up a frenzy for authoritarianism, financial markets work up for technology and investing, or community may use to work up for a belief system centered on a religious philosophy.&nbsp; The understanding of this path is why dissonance, so prevalent in our current system, even during the initial whispers, is crushed by governments, or, left unabated, can create a movement in a civilization that complete restructures a country&#8230;a world.&nbsp; It is this pathway that would so commonly be referred to as viral. &nbsp;</p><p><em>The pathway</em>:&nbsp; Whispers become Belief become Opinion become Truth but there is never a truly understood Fact.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Of course, this path is a bit, even philosophically, abstract.&nbsp; Because our understandings are always filtered through our own intellect, emotions, education, information, religion and, inescapably, all our own biases; and because facts are defined to be pure of any biases, there is no possible way to ever get at a fact.&nbsp; This is extreme, but it is also why people have this need to attempt to quantify every outcome as an attempt to arrive at an unbiased conclusion, a fact.&nbsp; I think it is also useful as a framework of understanding, which is, paradoxically exactly what this pathway affects and because most people believe their truth to be fact, is why I stop at truth.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Perhaps the most striking events to this pathway are found in the predictable cyclicity of both the causality and the outcomes directly related to financially driven forces of debt and corresponding authoritatively driven forces of power to initiate desired change.&nbsp; A deeper look into these anthropologically supported cycles can awaken you to the manipulative traps that financial and government systems have used to control populaces and even times when these populaces, through strong-willed determination and belief in a truth at the end of the path, have forced change in governments.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; As a quick and rough example, today, we might look at memes as the whispers.&nbsp; If these whispers act contrary to the desires of those in positions from which control of the whispers is possible then sensoring occurs.&nbsp; If persistent spreading continues and people are reached that identify with the meme it continues.&nbsp; This is key, for it must reach those that would also agree since many may not initiate whispers on their own, but they might pass on another&#8217;s memes.&nbsp; As it builds, more look into it and further support of the topic of what started as the meme is witnessed in documentation and perhaps research.&nbsp; Further supporting memes circulate, it then become a belief of many of those that initially only whispered it.&nbsp; If enough belief is reached and is again further supported, it becomes opinion.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; At the opinion stage, enough people have taken hold of the meme to speak on it and interest more people to listen.&nbsp; Often, I think, there seems to be some kind of emotional catalyst to force this opinion to be your truth, because truth isn&#8217;t necessarily in the right.&nbsp; Communism is a full &#8216;religion&#8217; of government full of true believers, as are religions in general and numerous slaughters have been done on these beliefs that have become truth to these followers.&nbsp; Truth seems to be substantially influenced by emotion but is nearly unshakable at this point, but this is also what separates it from fact.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Fact is not eternal, it can&#8217;t be, as briefly mentioned above, but it is most often quantitatively supported and through numbers people push for the closest understanding and identification of facts that is we can achieve.&nbsp; The goal is to make it understandable to most and as irrefutable as possible.&nbsp; Of course, this can&#8217;t be in every case as there are numerous examples of misleading statistics, or those whose opposing truth will never see the fact as refuting their truth. &nbsp;It is here that is the reason I stop the pathway short at truth and, not at fact, for our emotional states, the same that drive our frenzy through the pathway to our truth, that seem to be more important than any facts regardless of how they are presented or researched.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The important thing to glean from this is the emotional frenzy.&nbsp; There is the buildup, the spread to others building belief, them then spreading it as their opinion and finally an emotional attachment to it as truth.&nbsp; Emotion is the power and the destroyer but it is contagious and you might now recognize the emotional frenzy as similar to viral contagions. Perhaps one has seen or understands the power of this truth and emotion as cognitive dissonance or Dunning-Kruger or any number of psychological descriptions associated to one&#8217;s own emotional bubble and defense systems.&nbsp; These all tie in to an individual being swept up into a mass of people and that mass of people seemingly acting as a new entity driven on the common emotions and truth system to elicit some force on the environment.&nbsp; The force does not have to be violent; it can be mass buying or selling in financial markets, bank-runs, silent-quitting, mass exodus from urban areas and so on as we have readily available examples over the past couple years.&nbsp; What is curious is that while an individual may be fully vested to an unshakeable truth, they may not defend it alone, but if they know they are a part of a large mass of people that hold the same, then they will &#8216;spit bile&#8217; to defend it, think someone&#8217;s favorite sports team or even their favorite investment.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; What could happen if one understood this build and frenzy.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; What could be done if there were historically observable and predictable cycles. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; It should not be too difficult to conclude that if someone understands this pathway it can be used, the same way a popular movement might unconsciously follow it, by those outside a movement to manipulate a desired change or as a predictable pathway to benefit from it.&nbsp; Over the centuries and even millennia it has been used by both financial systems and authoritative systems, or just driven by truth systems, to do just this.&nbsp; The link between these systems and the cycle of empires is uncanny and &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>amazingly predictable as often one or the other of the systems is a necessary compliment to the driving force and the driving force always flows to a predictable outcome.&nbsp;</p><p>I will expand as articles progress but a look at:</p><p>Finance &#8211; Government &#8211; Money</p><p>No set of institutions will stir more emotion, whispers and frenzies than this set of institutions.&nbsp; Pandemics, lockdowns, metals trading, cryptocurrencies, debt, elections the list goes on and on and the fact the a &#8216;Great Reset&#8217; was stated as a goal through an organization with access/influence to all three institutions, it is evident that this cycle has run its course and the manipulation is well underway to lay out a pathway to a desired outcome of the next cycle.</p><p>I will end this article with a set up for the next and a look at frenzies.&nbsp; Perhaps the most well-known (and least read) books on frenzies is Charles MacKay&#8217;s, <em>Extraordinary</em> <em>Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,</em> published 1841.&nbsp; Since his book opens on John Law and an early instance of currency collapse when government control, finance manipulation of interest and forms of money and payments, that ranged from actual coins of precious metals to paper currency, enabled a wipeout of investors and a country&#8217;s stablility.</p><p>(on John Law/Mississippi Scheme; Popular Delusions, p.1)</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &#8220;&#8230;<em>neither knave nor madman, but one more deceived than deceiving&#8230;He was thoroughly acquainted with the philosophy and true principles of credit&#8230;(and) understood the monetary question better than any man of his day; and if his system fell with a crash so tremendous, it was not so much his fault as that of the people amongst whom he had erected it. He did not calculate upon the avaricious frenzy of a whole nation&#8230;that confidence, like mistrust, could be increased almost ad infinitum, and that hope was as extravagant as fear</em>.&#8221;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://williamfbryant.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Belief-Opinion-Truth-Fact! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>